Live prediction market odds for NJ-04 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Chris Smith (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NJ-04 House election.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NJ-04 House election. The outcome will be determined on November 3, 2026, based on the total votes cast in the district, with odds fluctuating due to campaign developments and voter sentiment.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Chris Smith (R)WINNER | Yes |
Rachel Peace (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NJ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NJ-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The NJ-04 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election for congressional seats.
The winner is determined by the total number of votes cast in the NJ-04 district. The candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner.
Odds in the NJ-04 House election markets are influenced by campaign events, candidate announcements, and voter polling data. Changes in public sentiment and endorsements can also impact the odds.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
