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Live prediction market odds for NJ-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NJ-05 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Josh Gottheimer (D)92¢1.09xPolymarket USSean Kirrane (R)9¢11.11xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Josh Gottheimer (D) about a 93.4% chance. Sean Kirrane (R) follows at 6.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Traders give Josh Gottheimer (D) about a 93.4% chance. Sean Kirrane (R) follows at 6.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NJ-05 House election scheduled for November 2026. This race will be pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, especially in the context of national political trends and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JG
Josh Gottheimer (D)ARB
93%
Kalshi94¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.8%92¢94¢6¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
92.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.3%94¢97¢3¢6¢
SK
Sean Kirrane (R)
6%
Kalshi9¢
—
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi11.24x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.7%6¢9¢91¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.7%3¢7¢94¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Josh Gottheimer (D)

Josh Gottheimer is the U.S. Representative for New Jersey's Fifth Congressional District. He co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His bipartisan approach and leadership in the Problem Solvers Caucus highlight his commitment to collaborative governance.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Josh Gottheimer (D)

93.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NJ-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NJ-5 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NJ-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the NJ-05 House election outcome?

Key factors include voter turnout, candidate popularity, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national political dynamics and party support can sway the election results.

How do prediction markets determine odds for this election?

Odds are based on the collective insights and expectations of market participants regarding the candidates' chances of winning. Factors like polling data, campaign events, and historical voting patterns are considered.

When will the NJ-05 House election take place?

The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, which includes various federal and state races.

What does the NJ-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NJ-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Josh Gottheimer (D): 92.8¢ on Kalshi, 95.3¢ on Polymarket, 92.0¢ on Polymarket US; Sean Kirrane (R): 7.7¢ on Kalshi, 4.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Gottheimer 99% Favorite in NJ-05 as Markets Drop 10 Points Without CauseForecasters hold at D+17.4 and a 99-in-100 win probability while Kalshi and Polymarket diverge by 18 points, suggesting thin-liquidity pricing rather than a real shift.Sep 18, 2026Gottheimer Falls to 73% in NJ-05 With No Catalyst in SightKalshi prices him at 90% while Polymarket sits at 56%, a 34-point spread that points to thin liquidity rather than genuine doubt.Jun 24, 2026