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Live prediction market odds for NY-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NY-03 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Tom Suozzi (D)92¢1.09xKalshiMike LiPetri (R)10¢10.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Tom Suozzi (D) about a 91.2% chance. Mike LiPetri (R) follows at 8.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Tom Suozzi (D) about a 91.2% chance. Mike LiPetri (R) follows at 8.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NY-03 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both major parties as they strategize their campaigns.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TS
Tom Suozzi (D)
91%
Kalshi92¢
—
Polymarket92¢
Kalshi1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.0%90¢92¢8¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.5%91¢92¢8¢9¢
ML
Mike LiPetri (R)ARB
9%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US11¢
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.7%7¢10¢90¢93¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
10.0%10¢11¢89¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%7¢8¢92¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Suozzi (D)

Tom Suozzi is the U.S. Representative for New York's 3rd congressional district, serving since 2024. He previously served as Nassau County Executive from 2002 to 2009 and as Mayor of Glen Cove from 1994 to 2001. Suozzi is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee and co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.

About Mike LiPetri (R)

Mike LiPetri is a Republican candidate for New York's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 election. He served as a New York State Assemblyman from 2019 to 2021. LiPetri has previously run for Congress in 2020 and 2024, and has been endorsed by the Conservative Party for the 2026 race.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Tom Suozzi (D)

91.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-3 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NY-03 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect collective expectations and can change rapidly with new information.

What is at stake in the NY-03 House race?

Winning the NY-03 House seat is crucial for both parties as it contributes to their overall majority in the House of Representatives. Control of the House can significantly impact legislative agendas and governance.

What does the NY-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tom Suozzi (D): 91.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.5¢ on Polymarket; Mike LiPetri (R): 8.7¢ on Kalshi, 7.5¢ on Polymarket, 10.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

NY-03's 80% Democratic Odds Are Really a One-Man Bet on Tom SuozziSuozzi's 99% primary lock means the Democratic Party's +8pp general election surge is a personal confidence vote. A 9-point Kalshi/Polymarket spread signals traders remain split on the seat's safety.Jun 25, 2026Democrats Lead NY-03 at 75%, But June 23 Primary Is the Real TestOdds jumped 28 points in three days on structural advantages, but Suozzi faces a progressive primary challenger with November four months out.Jun 8, 2026