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Live prediction market odds for NY-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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NY-04 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Laura Gillen (D)91¢1.10xPolymarket USJeanine Driscoll (R)9¢11.11xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Laura Gillen (D) about a 90.9% chance. Jeanine Driscoll (R) follows at 8.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Traders give Laura Gillen (D) about a 90.9% chance. Jeanine Driscoll (R) follows at 8.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the NY-04 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
LG
Laura Gillen (D)
91%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US91¢
Polymarket91¢
PredictIt93¢
Polymarket US1.10x91¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.1%91¢93¢7¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
90.0%90¢91¢9¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.5%90¢91¢9¢10¢
PredictItPredictIt
89.0%89¢93¢7¢11¢
JD
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
8%
Kalshi9¢
—
Polymarket10¢
PredictIt12¢
Kalshi11.24x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.6%6¢9¢91¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
PredictItPredictIt
5.0%5¢12¢88¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About Laura Gillen (D)

Laura Gillen is the U.S. Representative for New York's 4th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. She previously served as Hempstead Town Supervisor from 2018 to 2020, becoming the first Democrat elected to that position in 112 years. Gillen has a history of taking on big polluters and protecting New York’s beaches.

About Jeanine Driscoll (R)

Jeanine Driscoll is a Republican candidate for New York's 4th congressional district in the 2026 elections. She has served as the Receiver of Taxes for the Town of Hempstead, demonstrating her expertise in municipal finance. Driscoll is a member of the National Republican Congressional Committee's MAGA Majority program, which supports candidates aligned with the America First agenda.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Laura Gillen (D)

90.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-4 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NY-04 House race?

Odds can be influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising success, and local issues. Additionally, national trends and party dynamics play a significant role in shaping voter preferences.

How do prediction markets work for elections like NY-04?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and expectations of market participants regarding the election results.

What is at stake in the NY-04 House election?

Winning the NY-04 House seat could shift the majority in Congress, affecting legislation and governance. Local issues and candidate platforms will also resonate with voters, making this race particularly significant.

What does the NY-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Laura Gillen (D): 92.1¢ on Kalshi, 90.5¢ on Polymarket, 89.0¢ on PredictIt, 90.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jeanine Driscoll (R): 7.6¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Republican Party at 19% to Win NY-04 After 27-Point Primary SelloffLaura Gillen's clean June 23 primary win removed Democratic uncertainty in NY-04; Driscoll holds 96%+ to secure the Republican nomination June 27.Jun 25, 2026