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Live prediction market odds for NY-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NY-05 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Gregory Meeks (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USGeorge Marsh (R)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Gregory Meeks (D) about a 96.2% chance. George Marsh (R) follows at 2.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Gregory Meeks (D) about a 96.2% chance. George Marsh (R) follows at 2.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-05 House election. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, and is influenced by candidate campaigns and voter turnout in the district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GM
Gregory Meeks (D)ARB
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.2%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.3%97¢97¢3¢4¢
GM
George Marsh (R)ARB
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi28.57x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.8%1¢4¢97¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Gregory Meeks (D)

Gregory Meeks is the U.S. Representative for New York's 5th Congressional District. He has served in Congress since 1998 and was the first African American to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee from 2021 to 2023. Meeks is known for his leadership in foreign policy and his commitment to his constituents in Queens.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Gregory Meeks (D)

96.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the NY-05 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

Which platforms are tracking the NY-05 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this event.

What factors influence the odds for the NY-05 House election?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaigns, polling data, and voter turnout in the district leading up to the election.

What does the NY-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Gregory Meeks (D): 96.2¢ on Kalshi, 97.3¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; George Marsh (R): 2.8¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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