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Live prediction market odds for NY-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NY-11 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Nicole Malliotakis (R)96¢1.04xKalshiMichael DeCillis (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Nicole Malliotakis (R) about a 93.8% chance. Michael DeCillis (D) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Nicole Malliotakis (R) about a 93.8% chance. Michael DeCillis (D) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-11 House race. This election outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key local issues leading up to the 2026 elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
NM
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
94%
Kalshi96¢
—
Polymarket95¢
Kalshi1.05x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%91¢96¢5¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
MD
Michael DeCillis (D)
6%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%3¢7¢93¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Nicole Malliotakis (R)

Nicole Malliotakis is the U.S. Representative for New York's 11th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2021. She previously represented the 64th district in the New York State Assembly from 2013 to 2021. As the only Republican representing New York City in Congress, she holds a unique position in the House.

About Michael DeCillis (D)

Michael DeCillis is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New York's 11th Congressional District. He has served as a paramedic, NYPD officer, civil litigation attorney, and special education teacher. His extensive public service background and legal expertise underscore his commitment to community and public policy.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Nicole Malliotakis (R)

93.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-11 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-11 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the NY-11 House race odds?

Key factors include candidate popularity, local issues, and national political trends. Polling data and campaign strategies also play a significant role in shaping predictions.

When is the NY-11 House election scheduled?

The NY-11 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date coincides with the general election, where multiple offices are contested.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What does the NY-11 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-11 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Nicole Malliotakis (R): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket; Michael DeCillis (D): 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Can Democrats Win NY-11? Markets Now Say 52% Despite 28-Point GOP MarginDemocratic odds in NY-11 jumped 39 points in three days to 52%, though Polymarket and Kalshi diverge by 75 points on the same race.Jun 11, 2026
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.2K on No at 94¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.6K on Yes at 94¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →