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Live prediction market odds for NY-15 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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NY-15 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Ritchie Torres (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USStylo Sapaskis (R)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Ritchie Torres (D) about a 97.5% chance. Stylo Sapaskis (R) follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Traders give Ritchie Torres (D) about a 97.5% chance. Stylo Sapaskis (R) follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-15 House election. This market resolves based on the official election results on November 4, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RT
Ritchie Torres (D)ARB
98%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.9%95¢99¢1¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.7%98¢98¢2¢3¢
SS
Stylo Sapaskis (R)
1%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.6%1¢5¢95¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Ritchie Torres (D)

Ritchie Torres is the U.S. Representative for New York's 15th congressional district. He served on the New York City Council from 2014 to 2020, chairing the Committee on Public Housing and leading investigations into city programs. Torres is recognized for his advocacy on affordable housing and social justice issues.

About Stylo Sapaskis (R)

Stylo A. Sapaskis is a Republican candidate for New York's 15th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. He previously ran for the same seat in 2022 and for New York City Council District 11 in 2025. Sapaskis holds a Bachelor of Arts in Film Production/Cinema Studies from The City College of New York and is pursuing a Master of Fine Arts in the same field at the New York Institute of Technology.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ritchie Torres (D)

97.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-15 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What date does the NY-15 House election take place?

The NY-15 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This date is when the election results will be officially determined.

How do odds change in the NY-15 House election market?

Odds in the NY-15 House election market change based on candidate activities, polling data, and voter engagement. These factors can influence market sentiment leading up to the election.

What determines the resolution of the NY-15 House winner market?

The market resolves based on the official announcement of the election winner. This outcome is based on the certified results released after the election on November 4, 2026.

What does the NY-15 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-15 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Ritchie Torres (D): 98.9¢ on Kalshi, 97.7¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Stylo Sapaskis (R): 1.6¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-15 in 2026?WONPre-event: 85%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-15 in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONRitchie Torres (D)
Pre-event: 85%