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Live prediction market odds for NY-17 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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NY-17 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Cait Conley (D)66¢1.52xKalshiMike Lawler (R)36¢2.78xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Cait Conley (D) about a 65.3% chance. Mike Lawler (R) follows at 36.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Cait Conley (D) about a 65.3% chance. Mike Lawler (R) follows at 36.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the winner of the NY-17 House race. This election outcome could influence party control in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the 2026 elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
CC
Cait Conley (D)
65%
Kalshi66¢
—
Polymarket66¢
PredictIt67¢
Kalshi1.52x66¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
65.0%65¢66¢34¢35¢
PolymarketPolymarket
65.5%65¢66¢34¢35¢
PredictItPredictIt
67.0%64¢67¢33¢36¢
ML
Mike Lawler (R)
36%
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket US37¢
Polymarket36¢
PredictIt36¢
Kalshi2.78x36¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
36.0%35¢36¢64¢65¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
36.5%36¢37¢63¢64¢
PolymarketPolymarket
36.0%35¢36¢64¢65¢
PredictItPredictIt
33.0%33¢36¢64¢67¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About Cait Conley (D)

Cait Conley is a Democratic candidate for New York's 17th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. She is a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran, and former National Security Council director. Conley won the Democratic primary in June 2026, defeating a five-way field to challenge incumbent Republican Mike Lawler.

About Mike Lawler (R)

Mike Lawler is the U.S. Representative for New York's 17th Congressional District, serving since 2023. He previously represented the 97th District in the New York State Assembly from 2021 to 2022. Lawler is recognized for his bipartisan approach and has been rated the most effective freshman lawmaker in the 118th Congress.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
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Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Cait Conley (D)

65.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-17 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-17 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NY-17 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues affecting voter sentiment. Polling data and endorsements also play a critical role in shaping market expectations.

When is the NY-17 House election scheduled?

The NY-17 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election day for federal offices.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change as new information becomes available.

What does the NY-17 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-17 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Cait Conley (D): 65.0¢ on Kalshi, 65.5¢ on Polymarket, 67.0¢ on PredictIt; Mike Lawler (R): 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 36.0¢ on Polymarket, 33.0¢ on PredictIt, 36.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Lawler Leads NY-17 by 5 Points, but Markets Price It a Toss-UpDemocratic odds in NY-17 fell 13 percentage points in three days to 51%, even as Lawler holds a 5-point polling lead and a 15-point edge among independents.Sep 13, 2026NY-17 Forecasters Split: Lawler Leads in One Model, Trails in AnotherCall the Map gives Lawler 56-in-100 on R+0.9; Psephologix gives Conley 62% on D+2.1. Republican odds have climbed to 40%.Sep 11, 2026NY-17 Democratic Odds Drop 11 Points as Lawler's Cash Edge MountsConley sits at 58% on Polymarket, down from 70% in three days, with no public poll released and Lawler holding a $2.4M fundraising lead.Sep 8, 2026Republican Odds Drop 10 Points in NY-17 as Democrat Out-Raises LawlerPrediction markets now price Lawler at 26%, while Kalshi and PredictIt diverge by 18 points on the same race, flagging thin liquidity.Aug 5, 2026