What is the resolution date for the NY-20 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, coinciding with the general election date for the House of Representatives.

How do odds change leading up to the NY-20 House election?

Odds can fluctuate based on candidate campaign activities, public polling results, and any significant political developments that may arise before the election.

What platforms are tracking the NY-20 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the prediction market for the NY-20 House election winner.

What does the NY-20 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-20 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Paul Tonko (D): 97.3¢ on Kalshi, 95.0¢ on Polymarket; Ralph Ambrosio (R): 2.7¢ on Kalshi, 3.6¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do NY-20 House winner odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.3 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do NY-20 House winner prediction market payouts work?

For example, Paul Tonko (D) at 96.1¢ implies about a 96.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.