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Live prediction market odds for NY-21 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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NY-21 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Anthony Constantino (R)83¢1.20xKalshiBlake Gendebien (D)19¢5.26xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Anthony Constantino (R) about a 81.8% chance. Blake Gendebien (D) follows at 19.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Anthony Constantino (R) about a 81.8% chance. Blake Gendebien (D) follows at 19.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-21 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, and is influenced by candidate campaigns and voter turnout in the district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
Predict.fun
Best price
AC
Anthony Constantino (R)
82%
Kalshi83¢
—
Polymarket81¢
Predict.fun83¢
Kalshi1.20x83¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
83.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
80.5%80¢81¢19¢20¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
80.5%78¢83¢17¢22¢
BG
Blake Gendebien (D)
20%
Kalshi19¢
Polymarket US20¢
Polymarket21¢
Predict.fun25¢
Kalshi5.26x19¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
19.0%17¢19¢81¢83¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
20.0%19¢20¢80¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%20¢21¢79¢80¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
20.5%16¢25¢75¢84¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Anthony Constantino (R)

Anthony Constantino is a Republican candidate for New York's 21st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. He is the founder and CEO of Sticker Mule, a custom-printing and e-commerce company headquartered in Amsterdam, New York. Constantino's campaign focuses on economic growth, border security, public safety, and supporting the communities of Northern New York.

About Blake Gendebien (D)

Blake Gendebien is a dairy farmer and small business owner from Lisbon, New York. He won the Democratic nomination for New York's 21st Congressional District in June 2026. Gendebien has been endorsed by the NYS AFL-CIO and more than a dozen labor unions.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Anthony Constantino (R)

81.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-21 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-21 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the NY-21 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

What factors influence the odds in the NY-21 House race market?

Odds are affected by candidate campaigns, voter turnout, and polling data leading up to the election.

Which platforms are tracking the NY-21 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the primary platforms monitoring this event.

What does the NY-21 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-21 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Anthony Constantino (R): 83.0¢ on Kalshi, 80.5¢ on Polymarket, 80.5¢ on Predict.fun; Blake Gendebien (D): 19.0¢ on Kalshi, 20.0¢ on Polymarket, 20.0¢ on Polymarket US, 20.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

NY-21 Republican nominee?WONPre-event: 82%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

NY-21 Republican nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-23

WONAnthony Constantino (R)
Pre-event: 82%