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Live prediction market odds for NY-22 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NY-22 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

John Mannion (D)94¢1.06xPolymarket USKailee Buller (R)6¢16.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give John Mannion (D) about a 93.0% chance. Kailee Buller (R) follows at 5.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Traders give John Mannion (D) about a 93.0% chance. Kailee Buller (R) follows at 5.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-22 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative priorities and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
John Mannion (D)
93%
Kalshi95¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket94¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.4%92¢95¢6¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.0%92¢94¢6¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
KB
Kailee Buller (R)
5%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi17.54x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%5¢7¢93¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About John Mannion (D)

John W. Mannion is the U.S. Representative for New York's 22nd Congressional District. He previously served as a New York State Senator from 2020 to 2024. His extensive experience in state politics and education underscores his qualifications for this congressional role.

About Kailee Buller (R)

Kailee Buller is a Republican candidate for New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. She previously served as Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, overseeing a department with over 100,000 employees and a budget exceeding $200 billion. Buller is endorsed by House Republican leadership and is campaigning to lower taxes and utility bills for Central New York families.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.1%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

John Mannion (D)

93.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-22 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-22 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NY-22 House race?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues play significant roles in shaping the odds. Voter sentiment and turnout predictions also impact market movements.

How does the NY-22 House race affect national politics?

The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in party control may lead to different legislative agendas and priorities.

When will the NY-22 House race take place?

The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, which includes various federal and state contests.

What does the NY-22 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-22 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are John Mannion (D): 92.4¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket, 93.0¢ on Polymarket US; Kailee Buller (R): 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

NY-22: Mannion Wins Market Prices Democratic Party at 80%A 58-point gap between Cook's 'Likely D' rating and market pricing collapsed in three days. Kalshi sits at 87%, Polymarket at 72%.Jun 22, 2026