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Live prediction market odds for OK-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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OK-01 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Mark Tedford (R)92¢1.09xPolymarket USJohn Croisant (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Mark Tedford (R) about a 92.2% chance. John Croisant (D) follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.2 percentage points.

Traders give Mark Tedford (R) about a 92.2% chance. John Croisant (D) follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the OK-01 House race, set for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official election results announced by the state election board on that date, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and polling data leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MT
Mark Tedford (R)
92%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.7%92¢93¢7¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
92.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
92.0%91¢93¢7¢9¢
JC
John Croisant (D)
7%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket8¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.2%7¢10¢90¢93¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%7¢8¢92¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Mark Tedford (R)

Mark Tedford is the current U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district. He previously served as a member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, representing District 69. Tedford's extensive experience in state legislation and his leadership roles in various committees underscore his qualifications for federal office.

About John Croisant (D)

John Croisant is the Democratic candidate for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election. He owns an insurance agency and serves as vice president of the Tulsa Public Schools Board of Education. Croisant previously taught social studies at Edison Prep and coached youth soccer.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.2%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Mark Tedford (R)

92.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: OK-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for OK-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the OK-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the outcome of the OK-01 House winner market?

The market resolves based on the official election results announced by the state election board on November 3, 2026. Any candidate receiving the most votes will be declared the winner.

How do polling data and campaigning affect the market odds?

Odds fluctuate based on candidate performances in polls and their campaigning efforts as the election date approaches. Increased visibility or support can lead to shifts in market prices.

When will the final results for the OK-01 House race be available?

Final results will be available after the polls close on November 3, 2026. The state election board will confirm the winner shortly after counting the votes.

What does the OK-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest OK-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Mark Tedford (R): 92.7¢ on Kalshi, 92.0¢ on Polymarket, 92.0¢ on Polymarket US; John Croisant (D): 8.2¢ on Kalshi, 7.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

OK-01 Republican nominee?WONPre-event: 21%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

OK-01 Republican nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-16

WONMark Tedford (R)
Pre-event: 21%