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Live prediction market odds for OK-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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OK-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Tom Cole (R)96¢1.04xKalshiMitchell Jacob (D)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Tom Cole (R) about a 95.5% chance. Mitchell Jacob (D) follows at 5.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Tom Cole (R) about a 95.5% chance. Mitchell Jacob (D) follows at 5.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the OK-04 House race, set for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official election results as certified by the state election board following the voting process in that district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TC
Tom Cole (R)
96%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket96¢
Kalshi1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.8%92¢96¢4¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.5%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.3%96¢96¢4¢4¢
MJ
Mitchell Jacob (D)
5%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.6%4¢9¢91¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%4¢6¢94¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.8%4¢4¢96¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Cole (R)

Tom Cole is the current U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district. He has served in Congress since 2003 and is a member of the Chickasaw Nation. As Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, he plays a key role in federal budget decisions.

About Mitchell Jacob (D)

Mitchell Jacob is a public defender in Oklahoma. He served five and a half years as a U.S. Army cryptologic linguist, including a deployment to Syria in 2020. He graduated from the University of Oklahoma College of Law in 2025 and now works as a public defender.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Tom Cole (R)

95.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: OK-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for OK-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the OK-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the OK-04 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the election takes place. Official results will determine the winner.

How are odds affected in the OK-04 House winner market?

Odds fluctuate based on polling data, candidate announcements, and campaign developments leading up to the election. Significant events in the district can also impact market perceptions.

What determines the winner in the OK-04 House race?

The winner is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the election. Certification of the results by the state election board is crucial for market resolution.

What does the OK-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest OK-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tom Cole (R): 93.8¢ on Kalshi, 96.3¢ on Polymarket, 96.5¢ on Polymarket US; Mitchell Jacob (D): 7.6¢ on Kalshi, 3.8¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.3K on Yes at 94¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $2.1K on No at 94¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the OK-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →