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Live prediction market odds for OR-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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OR-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Val Hoyle (D)94¢1.06xPolymarket USMonique DeSpain (R)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Val Hoyle (D) about a 94.0% chance. Monique DeSpain (R) follows at 5.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Traders give Val Hoyle (D) about a 94.0% chance. Monique DeSpain (R) follows at 5.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the OR-04 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results on November 3, 2026, as voters cast their ballots in the general election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
VH
Val Hoyle (D)
94%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket94¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.6%95¢96¢4¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.0%92¢94¢6¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
MD
Monique DeSpain (R)
6%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.6%4¢7¢93¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Val Hoyle (D)

Val Hoyle is the current U.S. Representative for Oregon's 4th Congressional District, serving in the 118th Congress. She previously served as Oregon's Labor Commissioner and represented the 14th District in the Oregon House of Representatives. Her extensive experience in state labor and legislative roles underscores her commitment to public service and policy.

About Monique DeSpain (R)

Monique DeSpain is a retired U.S. Air Force Colonel and attorney. She served as General Counsel and a lobbyist for Common Sense for Oregon. DeSpain is the Republican nominee for Oregon's 4th Congressional District, aiming to unseat incumbent Congresswoman Val Hoyle.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Val Hoyle (D)

94.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: OR-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for OR-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the OR-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the OR-04 House winner be determined?

The OR-04 House winner will be determined on November 3, 2026, when the general election takes place. Official results will confirm the outcome.

What factors influence the odds for the OR-04 House race?

Odds for the OR-04 House race can fluctuate based on polling data, candidate announcements, and campaign events leading up to the election. Market participants analyze these developments to adjust their predictions.

Which platforms are tracking the OR-04 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the OR-04 House winner. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment and developments in the race.

What does the OR-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest OR-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Val Hoyle (D): 95.6¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket, 93.0¢ on Polymarket US; Monique DeSpain (R): 5.6¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

AI-PAC Spending Gives DeSpain Her Best Attack as Hoyle Sits at 95%Hoyle's win probability climbed 8 points in 3 days. A $292K AI-PAC spend she never authorized is DeSpain's only real line of attack.Sep 27, 2026