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Live prediction market odds for Oregon Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Oregon Governor winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Tina Kotek (D)81¢1.23xKalshiChristine Drazan (R)18¢5.56xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Tina Kotek (D) about a 81.2% chance. Christine Drazan (R) follows at 18.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Tina Kotek (D) about a 81.2% chance. Christine Drazan (R) follows at 18.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Oregon gubernatorial election set for November 2026. This election could influence state policies and party dynamics, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TK
Tina Kotek (D)
81%
Kalshi81¢
Polymarket US83¢
Polymarket82¢
Kalshi1.23x81¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
80.0%80¢81¢19¢20¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
82.0%82¢83¢17¢18¢
PolymarketPolymarket
81.5%81¢82¢18¢19¢
CD
Christine Drazan (R)ARB
19%
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket US18¢
Polymarket19¢
Polymarket US5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.5%20¢21¢79¢80¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
18.0%17¢18¢82¢83¢
PolymarketPolymarket
18.0%18¢19¢81¢82¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Tina Kotek (D)

Tina Kotek is the 39th Governor of Oregon, serving since January 9, 2023. She was the longest-serving Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives from 2013 to 2022. As Governor, she has prioritized housing production and mental health services.

About Christine Drazan (R)

Christine Drazan is the current State Senator for Oregon's 26th district, serving since October 23, 2025. She previously held the position of Minority Leader in the Oregon House of Representatives from 2019 to 2021 and again in 2025. Drazan has a history of leading Republican legislative efforts and is currently campaigning for the governorship of Oregon.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
US State Governments
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Tina Kotek (D)

81.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oregon Governor winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
US State Governments
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Oregon. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Oregon gubernatorial election?

The Oregon gubernatorial election can shape the state's legislative agenda and influence local policies. It also serves as a barometer for broader political trends in the region.

How do prediction markets reflect voter sentiment in this election?

Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data, providing insights into potential outcomes based on current events and polling. Shifts in odds can indicate changing voter sentiment as the election date approaches.

What factors could impact the odds in this race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and major state issues like healthcare and education. Additionally, national political trends and events may also influence voter behavior leading up to the election.

What does the Oregon Governor winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oregon Governor winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tina Kotek (D): 80.0¢ on Kalshi, 81.5¢ on Polymarket, 82.0¢ on Polymarket US; Christine Drazan (R): 20.5¢ on Kalshi, 18.0¢ on Polymarket, 18.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Kotek Oregon Governor Odds Fall 8 Points as Drazan Rematch Takes ShapePrediction markets price Kotek at 78%, down from 86% in three days. The 2022 race was decided by under 3 points with a third-party spoiler who isn't running in 2026.Sep 28, 2026Can Christine Drazan End Oregon's 40-Year Democratic Governor Streak?A Republican-leaning poll showing Drazan up 48-44 sent her Polymarket odds from 16% to 84%; Kalshi still prices her at 17%.Jul 17, 2026Drazan Reaches 50% in Oregon Governor Market After 34-Point SurgeA Drazan campaign poll showing a 4-point race moved her odds from 16% to 50%. Cook Political Report also shifted Oregon toward Republicans.Jul 15, 2026Oregon Governor Race Hits 50% Republican After Drazan Primary WinDrazan leads Kotek 48–44 in first post-primary poll; Cook moved Oregon from Solid D to Likely D for first time in over a decade.
Jul 11, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Oregon Republican Governor nominee?WONPre-event: 89%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Oregon Republican Governor nominee?

Resolved

2026-05-19

WONChristine Drazan (R)
Pre-event: 89%