Live prediction market odds for PA-04 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Madeleine Dean (D) was the officially declared outcome.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the PA-04 House race.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the PA-04 House race. This election will be resolved on November 3, 2026, based on the official vote count from that day.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Madeleine Dean (D)WINNER | Yes |
Aurora Stuski (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for PA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the PA-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the election results are officially counted.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this election market.
The winner is determined by the official vote count on election day, November 3, 2026.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
