Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, local and national political trends can impact voter sentiment.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.

Question 3

How does the PA-07 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The PA-07 race is significant as it could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A strong performance by Democrats here may signal broader trends in voter preferences across Pennsylvania.

Question 4

What is "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

PA-07 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ryan Crosswell leads at 1% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Lamont McClure at 0%, Carol Obando-Derstine at 0%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "PA-07 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Ryan Crosswell currently leads at 1% implied probability. Behind Ryan Crosswell, Lamont McClure at 0% and Carol Obando-Derstine at 0% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Ryan Crosswell: 1¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. Lamont McClure: 0¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. Carol Obando-Derstine: 0¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that Ryan Crosswell is at 1%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 1¢ means the market estimates a 1% probability that Ryan Crosswell will be the outcome. Buying one share at 1¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 9900% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	100¢	100¢
Polymarket	3.0%	1¢	5¢	95¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	100¢	100¢
Polymarket	2.5%	1¢	4¢	96¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢
Polymarket	2.5%	0¢	5¢	95¢	100¢

PA-07 Democratic nominee?

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Market Rulebook: PA-07 Democratic nominee?