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Live prediction market odds for PA-15 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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PA-15 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Glenn Thompson (R)97¢1.03xKalshiRay Bilger (D)6¢16.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Glenn Thompson (R) about a 96.0% chance. Ray Bilger (D) follows at 5.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Glenn Thompson (R) about a 96.0% chance. Ray Bilger (D) follows at 5.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the PA-15 House election. This market resolves based on the official results announced after the election on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and local issues.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GT
Glenn Thompson (R)
96%
Kalshi97¢
—
Polymarket96¢
Kalshi1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.1%95¢97¢3¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
RB
Ray Bilger (D)
5%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi18.18x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.5%3¢6¢95¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Glenn Thompson (R)

Glenn Thompson is the current U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District. He has chaired the House Agriculture Committee since January 2023. Thompson has a longstanding career in agricultural policy and has been instrumental in shaping U.S. agriculture legislation.

About Ray Bilger (D)

Ray Bilger is a retired intelligence analyst and security officer. He served over 35 years in the U.S. Air Force, National Security Agency, and State Department, including as NSA Technical Director for Cyber Analysis. Bilger is a Bellefonte native and Desert Storm veteran.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Glenn Thompson (R)

96.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: PA-15 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for PA-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the PA-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the PA-15 House election?

The PA-15 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

How do odds change in the PA-15 House winner market?

Odds in the PA-15 House winner market fluctuate based on candidate activities, campaign events, and public opinion polls. As candidates engage with voters and issues arise, market sentiment can shift.

What determines the resolution of the PA-15 House winner market?

The market resolves based on the official election results announced after the voting concludes on November 3, 2026. The candidate who receives the most votes will be declared the winner.

What does the PA-15 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest PA-15 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Glenn Thompson (R): 96.1¢ on Kalshi, 96.0¢ on Polymarket; Ray Bilger (D): 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Glenn Thompson's PA-15 Odds Fall 9 Points With No Public CatalystRepublican odds in PA-15 slid from 96% to 87% in three days. Kalshi and Polymarket now show a 14-point spread, suggesting the sell-off is platform-specific.Sep 19, 2026