Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Live prediction market odds for Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Anthony Albanese about a 38.0% chance. Pauline Hanson follows at 21.8%, Angus Taylor follows at 20.0%, and Andrew Hastie follows at 5.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Anthony Albanese becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Sep 23, 2029, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
The next Australian federal election is scheduled for September 23, 2028. This election will determine the members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate.
Odds for candidates are influenced by polling data, party performance, and key issues affecting voters. Economic conditions, public sentiment, and campaign strategies also play crucial roles.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of each candidate winning the election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Anthony Albanese: 36.5¢ on Kalshi, 39.5¢ on Polymarket; Pauline Hanson: 22.5¢ on Kalshi, 21.0¢ on Polymarket; Angus Taylor: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 23.0¢ on Polymarket; Andrew Hastie: 5.5¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
