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Live prediction market odds for South Dakota Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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South Dakota Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Mike Rounds (R)92¢1.09xKalshiJulian Beaudion (D)0¢Kalshi

About This Market

Traders give Mike Rounds (R) about a 93.0% chance. Julian Beaudion (D) follows at 0.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Traders give Mike Rounds (R) about a 93.0% chance. Julian Beaudion (D) follows at 0.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the South Dakota Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race could influence the balance of power in the Senate, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MR
Mike Rounds (R)
93%
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket US94¢
—
Kalshi1.08x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.1%91¢92¢8¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%93¢94¢6¢7¢
JB
Julian Beaudion (D)
—
—
—
Kalshi250.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
—0¢—100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Mike Rounds (R)

Mike Rounds is the junior U.S. Senator from South Dakota, serving since 2015. He was the 31st governor of South Dakota from 2003 to 2011. As a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, he chairs the Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, focusing on national defense and cybersecurity issues.

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Resolution Oracles

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Stats
Spread1.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Mike Rounds (R)

93.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: South Dakota Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket US.

Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for US Senator from South Dakota. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the South Dakota Senate race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and national political trends. Polling data and voter sentiment will also play a critical role leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment in the Senate race?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the outcome. As new information emerges, such as debates or endorsements, odds can fluctuate significantly.

What is at stake in the South Dakota Senate election?

Control of the Senate is at stake, which can impact legislative priorities and the confirmation of judicial appointments. A shift in power could lead to significant changes in policy direction.

What does the South Dakota Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest South Dakota Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are Mike Rounds (R): 92.1¢ on Kalshi, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Julian Beaudion (D): 0.4¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?WONPre-event: 100%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-28

WONMike Rounds (R)
Pre-event: 100%