Swiss Federal Council by-election winner?
Live prediction market odds for Swiss Federal Council by-election winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders give Pierre Alain Schnegg about a 32.5% chance. Céline Amaudruz follows at 24.8%, Thomas Aeschi follows at 21.8%, and Jean-Pierre Gallati follows at 8.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 23.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Thomas Aeschi wins the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
PolymarketSwitzerland's Federal Assembly is currently scheduled to elect a successor to Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin on December 9, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual elected by the Federal Assembly to succeed Guy Parmelin as a member of the Swiss Federal Council by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An individual will be considered elected once the Federal Assembly officially declares them elected. Whether the elected individual accepts the election, is sworn in, or assumes office will not affect the resolution of this market. If no such individual is elected by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Switzerland and the Swiss Federal Assembly; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The winner is determined by the candidate who receives the majority of votes during the election. This process involves the Swiss Federal Assembly electing the new council member.
Candidate campaigns can sway public opinion and influence polling results, which in turn affects the odds in prediction markets. As candidates gain or lose support, the odds reflect these changes.
Trading for the Swiss Federal Council by-election market closes on December 10, 2026. This deadline marks the last opportunity for traders to place bets before the election results are finalized.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Pierre Alain Schnegg: 21.0¢ on Kalshi, 44.0¢ on Polymarket; Céline Amaudruz: 15.5¢ on Kalshi, 34.0¢ on Polymarket; Thomas Aeschi: 20.0¢ on Kalshi, 23.5¢ on Polymarket; Jean-Pierre Gallati: 9.0¢ on Kalshi, 8.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
