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Live prediction market odds for Texas Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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Texas Governor winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Greg Abbott (R)81¢1.23xKalshiGina Hinojosa (D)21¢4.76xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Greg Abbott (R) about a 81.5% chance. Gina Hinojosa (D) follows at 19.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.0 percentage points.

Traders give Greg Abbott (R) about a 81.5% chance. Gina Hinojosa (D) follows at 19.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Texas Governor race for the 2026 election. As candidates campaign and public opinion shifts, the outcome will influence state policies and party dynamics in Texas.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
GA
Greg Abbott (R)ARB
81%
Kalshi81¢
Polymarket US81¢
Polymarket83¢
PredictIt78¢
Kalshi1.23x81¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
81.0%80¢81¢19¢20¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
81.0%80¢81¢19¢20¢
PolymarketPolymarket
82.3%82¢83¢17¢18¢
PredictItPredictIt
77.0%77¢78¢22¢23¢
GH
Gina Hinojosa (D)ARB
20%
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket US22¢
Polymarket18¢
PredictIt26¢
Kalshi4.76x21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.5%20¢21¢79¢80¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
21.0%21¢22¢78¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
18.0%17¢18¢82¢83¢
PredictItPredictIt
25.0%25¢26¢74¢75¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Greg Abbott (R)

Greg Abbott is the current Governor of Texas, serving since 2015. Before this, he was the state's Attorney General from 2002 to 2015. As the longest-serving governor in Texas history, he has a proven track record in state leadership.

About Gina Hinojosa (D)

Gina Hinojosa is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. She has served as a state representative for the 49th district since 2017. Hinojosa is challenging incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott in the upcoming election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
US State Governments
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread7.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Greg Abbott (R)

81.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Texas Governor winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Texas pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
US State Governments
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Texas. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Texas Governor election scheduled?

The Texas Governor election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it aligns with the general election cycle.

What factors influence the odds in the Texas Governor race?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, campaign strategies, and key issues affecting Texas voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What does the Texas Governor winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Texas Governor winner odds?

The latest available prices are Greg Abbott (R): 81.0¢ on Kalshi, 82.3¢ on Polymarket, 77.0¢ on PredictIt, 81.0¢ on Polymarket US; Gina Hinojosa (D): 20.5¢ on Kalshi, 18.0¢ on Polymarket, 25.0¢ on PredictIt, 21.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Hinojosa Falls to 22% as Polls Show Texas Governor Race a TossupBettors cut Hinojosa 9 points in 3 days while RealClearPolitics moved the race to tossup. Republican ads outpaced Democrats 502M to 331M impressions in September.Sep 26, 2026RCP Calls Texas Governor Race a Toss-Up as Hinojosa Hits 29%A ReconMR/Siena poll showing Hinojosa up four points prompted RCP's toss-up call, the first for a Texas governor's race in the modern era.Sep 23, 2026Greg Abbott Odds Hit 87% After 33-Point Jump in Texas Gov RaceAbbott leads a Democrat who has never run statewide, yet markets priced the race near 50/50 for months before a sudden 33-point correction.Jun 13, 2026Hinojosa Reaches 39% in Texas Governor Race Despite Polling DeficitPlatform prices span 13% to 86%, with Polymarket driving the composite. Abbott led 48-43 in the only public poll, conducted in April.Jun 9, 2026