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Live prediction market odds for TX-01 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-01 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Nathaniel Moran (R)95¢1.05xPolymarket USYolanda R. Prince (D)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Nathaniel Moran (R) about a 96.0% chance. Yolanda R. Prince (D) follows at 2.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.4 percentage points.

Traders give Nathaniel Moran (R) about a 96.0% chance. Yolanda R. Prince (D) follows at 2.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-01 House Election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative agendas and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
NM
Nathaniel Moran (R)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.9%96¢98¢2¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.8%95¢97¢3¢5¢
YR
Yolanda R. Prince (D)
3%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket3¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.3%2¢3¢97¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.4%2¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Nathaniel Moran (R)

Nathaniel Moran is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 1st congressional district. He served as Smith County Judge from 2016 to 2022. His extensive experience in local government and law underscores his qualifications for federal office.

About Yolanda R. Prince (D)

Yolanda R. Prince is a project manager at Prairie View A&M University's Texas Juvenile Crime Prevention Center. She earned a Master of Public Administration from the University of Texas at Arlington in 2011. She has held leadership roles with the League of Women Voters, NAACP, and the Smith County Democratic Party.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Nathaniel Moran (R)

96.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-01 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-01 House Election?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national trends and party support can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for elections like TX-01?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective wisdom of participants betting on outcomes, reflecting real-time sentiment. As new information emerges, such as candidate debates or endorsements, the odds adjust accordingly.

What is at stake in the TX-01 House Election?

Winning the TX-01 seat could provide a critical advantage for either party in the House of Representatives. This election may also serve as a bellwether for broader political trends heading into the 2026 midterms.

What does the TX-01 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-01 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Nathaniel Moran (R): 97.9¢ on Kalshi, 95.8¢ on Polymarket, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Yolanda R. Prince (D): 3.3¢ on Kalshi, 2.4¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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