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Live prediction market odds for TX-07 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-07 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Lizzie Fletcher (D)96¢1.04xKalshiAlexander Hale (R)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Lizzie Fletcher (D) about a 95.5% chance. Alexander Hale (R) follows at 2.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Lizzie Fletcher (D) about a 95.5% chance. Alexander Hale (R) follows at 2.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-07 House Election Winner for the upcoming November 2026 election. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LF
Lizzie Fletcher (D)
96%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket97¢
Kalshi1.05x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.6%96¢96¢4¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%95¢97¢3¢5¢
AH
Alexander Hale (R)
2%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Lizzie Fletcher (D)

Lizzie Fletcher is the current U.S. Representative for Texas' Seventh Congressional District. She was first elected in 2018, becoming the first Democrat and woman to represent the district. Fletcher serves as Vice Ranking Member of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and is Chair of the Texas Democratic Delegation.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Lizzie Fletcher (D)

95.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-07 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-07 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-07 House Election Winner?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Local issues and national political climate also play significant roles.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a candidate winning?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and analysis of various factors impacting the election.

What is the significance of the TX-07 district in the House elections?

TX-07 is a competitive district that can sway the overall control of the House. Its demographics and voting history make it a key battleground for both parties.

What does the TX-07 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-07 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Lizzie Fletcher (D): 95.6¢ on Kalshi, 96.0¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Alexander Hale (R): 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 2.5¢ on Polymarket, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Republican TX-07 Odds Collapse to 6% Despite Hale's 64-Point Primary WinPrediction markets dropped GOP chances 45 points in three days. Fletcher now sits above 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket heading into November 2026.Aug 28, 2026