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Live prediction market odds for TX-18 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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TX-18 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Christian Menefee (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USRonald Whitfield (R)6¢16.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Christian Menefee (D) about a 96.3% chance. Ronald Whitfield (R) follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.4 percentage points.

Traders give Christian Menefee (D) about a 96.3% chance. Ronald Whitfield (R) follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.4 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-18 House race. This election will be resolved based on the official results announced after the polls close on November 4, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and voter sentiment leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CM
Christian Menefee (D)
96%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.4%94¢99¢1¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.4%95¢98¢2¢5¢
RW
Ronald Whitfield (R)
3%
Kalshi6¢
—
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.6%1¢6¢94¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.3%2¢5¢95¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Christian Menefee (D)

Christian Menefee is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 18th congressional district, serving since February 2026. He previously served as Harris County Attorney from 2021 to 2026, becoming the youngest and first African American to hold that position. Menefee has a strong track record in public service, including his tenure as Harris County Attorney and his current role in Congress.

About Ronald Whitfield (R)

Ronald Whitfield is the Republican nominee for Texas's 18th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. He won the Republican primary on March 3, 2026, defeating Elizabeth Vences. Whitfield is a landscaping business owner and is running as the Republican candidate in this district.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Christian Menefee (D)

96.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-18 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-18 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the TX-18 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 4, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

What factors influence the odds for the TX-18 House race?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaigns, polling data, and voter sentiment as the election date approaches.

Which platforms are tracking the TX-18 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the TX-18 House winner market.

What does the TX-18 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-18 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Christian Menefee (D): 96.4¢ on Kalshi, 96.4¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Ronald Whitfield (R): 3.6¢ on Kalshi, 3.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

TX-18 Democratic nominee?WONPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

Resolved

2026-03-03

WONChristian Menefee (D)
Pre-event: 0%