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Live prediction market odds for TX-22 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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TX-22 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Trever Nehls (R)91¢1.10xPolymarket USMarquette Greene-Scott (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Trever Nehls (R) about a 91.9% chance. Marquette Greene-Scott (D) follows at 7.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Traders give Trever Nehls (R) about a 91.9% chance. Marquette Greene-Scott (D) follows at 7.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-22 House Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This election could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TN
Trever Nehls (R)
92%
Kalshi94¢
Polymarket US91¢
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket US1.10x91¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.3%91¢94¢6¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
90.0%90¢91¢9¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
92.5%92¢93¢7¢8¢
MG
Marquette Greene-Scott (D)
7%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket8¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%6¢9¢91¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%7¢8¢92¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Trever Nehls (R)

Trever Nehls is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas' 22nd Congressional District. He served as Constable for Fort Bend County Precinct 4 from 2013 to 2020 and is the twin brother of current U.S. Representative Troy Nehls. Nehls has a background in law enforcement and military service, including deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

About Marquette Greene-Scott (D)

Marquette Greene-Scott is the Mayor Pro Tem of Iowa Colony, Texas, and a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas's 22nd Congressional District. She has 14 years of experience teaching mathematics and 21 years practicing law in Texas and Louisiana. Her leadership in local government and legal expertise make her a strong contender for federal office.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Trever Nehls (R)

91.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-22 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-22 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-22 House Election Winner?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local demographic trends. Additionally, national political climate and major events leading up to the election can sway voter sentiment.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of candidates winning?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights and expectations of participants, reflecting their beliefs about the outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as polls or campaign developments.

What is the significance of the TX-22 district in the House elections?

TX-22 is considered a battleground district that can impact the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Winning this seat could be crucial for either party in achieving a majority.

What does the TX-22 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-22 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Trever Nehls (R): 93.3¢ on Kalshi, 92.5¢ on Polymarket, 90.0¢ on Polymarket US; Marquette Greene-Scott (D): 7.5¢ on Kalshi, 7.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

TX-22 Was Never a Toss-Up: Republican Price Corrects 42 Points to 92%A district with R+22.5 partisan lean was briefly priced at coin-flip odds. Forecasters at 97-in-100 never moved. The market has since closed most of that gap.Sep 13, 2026Nehls Wins TX-22 Primary, GOP Chances Rise to 92%Trump-endorsed Trever Nehls clinched the TX-22 Republican nomination March 3. The Democratic nominee reports $0 cash on hand entering the general.Aug 30, 2026TX-22 Republican Odds Hit 92% as All Six Counties Trend DemocraticMarkets repriced TX-22 from a coin flip to 92% Republican in three days. Call the Map projects an R+11.7 margin despite a 10.4-point average Democratic shift.Aug 28, 2026Republican Odds in TX-22 Jump 41 Points to 92% in Three DaysTX-22 repriced from a coin flip to a near-lock for the GOP in 72 hours. No confirmed public catalyst has been identified, making the move itself the story.Aug 26, 2026