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Live prediction market odds for TX-23 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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TX-23 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Brandon Herrera (R)64¢1.56xKalshiKaty Padilla Stout (D)36¢2.78xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Brandon Herrera (R) about a 62.3% chance. Katy Padilla Stout (D) follows at 37.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Brandon Herrera (R) about a 62.3% chance. Katy Padilla Stout (D) follows at 37.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-23 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
Predict.fun
Best price
BH
Brandon Herrera (R)
62%
Kalshi64¢
—
Polymarket62¢
Predict.fun63¢
Kalshi1.56x64¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
PolymarketPolymarket
61.0%61¢62¢38¢39¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
61.5%60¢63¢37¢40¢
KP
Katy Padilla Stout (D)ARB
38%
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket US39¢
Polymarket39¢
Predict.fun40¢
Kalshi2.78x36¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
36.0%35¢36¢64¢65¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
38.5%38¢39¢61¢62¢
PolymarketPolymarket
38.5%38¢39¢61¢62¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
39.0%38¢40¢60¢62¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Brandon Herrera (R)

Brandon Herrera is a Republican congressional candidate for Texas's 23rd District. He is a YouTuber and firearms manufacturer known for his gun rights advocacy. He has gained prominence through his YouTube channel, which features firearms testing, historical weapon demonstrations, and commentary on gun policy and politics.

About Katy Padilla Stout (D)

Katy Padilla Stout is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 election. She previously served as an attorney representing children in the foster care system and as a public school teacher. Her extensive experience in child advocacy and education positions her as a strong candidate to address issues affecting working families and rural communities.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Brandon Herrera (R)

62.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-23 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-23 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the resolution of the TX-23 House winner market?

The market resolves based on the official election results from the TX-23 House race held on November 3, 2026. Only the declared winner as per the certified results will determine the outcome.

How do odds change for the TX-23 House winner?

Odds for the TX-23 House winner fluctuate based on various factors, including candidate campaign activities, public polling, and voter engagement. As the election date approaches, these elements can significantly impact market prices.

When is the election for the TX-23 House seat?

The election for the TX-23 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is critical as it marks the official voting day for this congressional race.

What does the TX-23 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-23 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Brandon Herrera (R): 63.5¢ on Kalshi, 61.0¢ on Polymarket, 61.5¢ on Predict.fun; Katy Padilla Stout (D): 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 38.5¢ on Polymarket, 38.5¢ on Polymarket US, 39.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Brandon Herrera (R)

Smart Money Consensus$122
$122Brandon Herrera (R)
Smart Traders Split1
1Brandon Herrera (R)
KalshiBuy Yes at 64¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Katy Padilla Stout (D)
No$122 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $40.8K lifetime bet $1.5K on Yes at 37¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →