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Live prediction market odds for TX-31 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-31 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

John Carter (R)92¢1.09xPolymarket USJustin Early (D)8¢12.50xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give John Carter (R) about a 92.8% chance. Justin Early (D) follows at 6.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give John Carter (R) about a 92.8% chance. Justin Early (D) follows at 6.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-31 House Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JC
John Carter (R)ARB
93%
Kalshi95¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.8%91¢95¢5¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
JE
Justin Early (D)
6%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US8¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US12.50x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%5¢10¢90¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢8¢92¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About John Carter (R)

John Carter is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 31st congressional district, serving since 2003. He previously served as Secretary of the House Republican Conference from 2007 to 2013. He is known for his leadership on military and veterans' affairs, chairing the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Committee.

About Justin Early (D)

Justin Early is a cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies and a U.S. Army veteran. He served as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division and later worked as a LAN Systems Administrator at the Pentagon. Early is a Democratic candidate for Texas's 31st Congressional District in the 2026 general election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

John Carter (R)

92.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-31 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-31 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-31 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-31 House Election Winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, local issues and national trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets reflect voter sentiment in the TX-31 race?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, providing insights into perceived candidate viability. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in public perception or campaign developments.

What role does party affiliation play in the TX-31 House Election?

Party affiliation can significantly impact voter turnout and candidate support in the TX-31 district. Understanding the demographic makeup and historical voting patterns is crucial for predicting outcomes.

What does the TX-31 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-31 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are John Carter (R): 92.8¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Justin Early (D): 7.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $116K lifetime bet $3.5K on Yes at 94¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →