Live prediction market odds for TX-31 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-31 House Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.
Republican party leads the “TX-31 House Election Winner” event at 84.8% implied probability, followed by E at 32.5%. A 35.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, local issues and national trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, providing insights into perceived candidate viability. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in public perception or campaign developments.
Party affiliation can significantly impact voter turnout and candidate support in the TX-31 district. Understanding the demographic makeup and historical voting patterns is crucial for predicting outcomes.
TX-31 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 85% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include E at 33%.
Republican party currently leads at 85% implied probability. Behind Republican party, E at 33% are the next closest contenders. The 35.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican party
84.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-31 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
