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Live prediction market odds for TX-34 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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TX-34 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Vicente Gonzalez (D)83¢1.20xPolymarket USEric Flores (R)15¢6.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Vicente Gonzalez (D) about a 83.2% chance. Eric Flores (R) follows at 15.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Vicente Gonzalez (D) about a 83.2% chance. Eric Flores (R) follows at 15.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-34 House race. This election will play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize for the upcoming election cycle.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
VG
Vicente Gonzalez (D)
83%
Kalshi85¢
Polymarket US83¢
Polymarket84¢
Polymarket US1.20x83¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.0%83¢85¢15¢17¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
82.0%82¢83¢17¢18¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.5%83¢84¢16¢17¢
EF
Eric Flores (R)
16%
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket US15¢
Polymarket16¢
Polymarket US6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%15¢17¢83¢85¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
15.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.0%15¢16¢84¢85¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Vicente Gonzalez (D)

Vicente Gonzalez is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 34th congressional district, serving his fifth term in Congress. He previously represented Texas's 15th congressional district from 2017 to 2023. As a member of the House Committee on Financial Services, he has been involved in legislation related to financial markets and national security.

About Eric Flores (R)

Eric Flores is a Republican candidate for Texas's 34th Congressional District, having won the March 2026 primary. He is a former assistant U.S. attorney and Army National Guard infantry captain. Flores's military and legal experience, along with his endorsement by former President Donald Trump, position him as a significant contender in the district's congressional race.

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Stats
Spread2.0%
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Candidates2
Leader

Vicente Gonzalez (D)

83.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-34 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-34 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-34 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-34 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.

When is the election for the TX-34 House seat?

The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with the general election, which typically sees higher voter engagement.

How do prediction markets work for elections like TX-34?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What does the TX-34 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-34 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Vicente Gonzalez (D): 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 83.5¢ on Polymarket, 82.0¢ on Polymarket US; Eric Flores (R): 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 15.0¢ on Polymarket, 15.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Flores Falls to 17% in TX-34 Despite R+10 Map as He Scrubs TrumpEric Flores dropped 8 percentage points in three days. The only public poll shows Gonzalez leading 45-42 in a district redistricting built for Republicans.Sep 24, 2026Will Republicans Win TX-34? Odds Fall to 24% Despite NRCC PollBettors cut Republican TX-34 odds 10pp in three days after NRCC released a Flores +1 internal poll. Cook rates the seat "Likely D."May 21, 2026