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Live prediction market odds for TX-35 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-35 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Johnny C. Garcia (D)64¢1.56xPolymarket USCarlos De La Cruz (R)38¢2.63xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Johnny C. Garcia (D) about a 65.3% chance. Carlos De La Cruz (R) follows at 36.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Johnny C. Garcia (D) about a 65.3% chance. Carlos De La Cruz (R) follows at 36.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-35 House race scheduled for November 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JC
Johnny C. Garcia (D)ARB
65%
Kalshi66¢
Polymarket US64¢
Polymarket67¢
Polymarket US1.56x64¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
66.0%62¢66¢34¢38¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
64.0%62¢64¢36¢38¢
PolymarketPolymarket
66.0%66¢67¢33¢34¢
CD
Carlos De La Cruz (R)ARB
36%
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket US38¢
Polymarket35¢
Kalshi2.63x38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
36.0%36¢38¢62¢64¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
38.0%37¢38¢62¢63¢
PolymarketPolymarket
35.0%32¢35¢65¢68¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Johnny C. Garcia (D)

Johnny C. Garcia is a Bexar County sheriff's deputy and public information officer. He previously served as a SWAT hostage negotiator. Garcia is a Democratic nominee for Texas' 35th Congressional District, having won the primary runoff in May 2026.

About Carlos De La Cruz (R)

Carlos De La Cruz is a U.S. Air Force veteran and small business owner. He served 20 years in the Air Force, including deployments to the Middle East and the southern border, and now runs a kickboxing gym in San Antonio with his wife. He is the Republican nominee for Texas' 35th Congressional District in the 2026 general election.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Johnny C. Garcia (D)

65.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-35 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-35 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-35 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-35 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising totals, and local issues affecting voters. Polling data leading up to the election also plays a crucial role in shaping market expectations.

How do prediction markets work for elections like TX-35?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the TX-35 House race considered important?

The outcome could significantly impact legislative priorities and party control in Congress. Additionally, it may serve as a barometer for broader political trends in Texas leading into the 2026 elections.

What does the TX-35 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-35 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Johnny C. Garcia (D): 66.0¢ on Kalshi, 66.0¢ on Polymarket, 64.0¢ on Polymarket US; Carlos De La Cruz (R): 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 35.0¢ on Polymarket, 38.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Johnny C. Garcia (D)

Smart Money Consensus$370
$370Yes
Smart Traders Split1
1Yes
Polymarket USBuy Yes at 64¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Johnny C. Garcia (D)
Yes$370 · 1 whale
Carlos De La Cruz (R)
Yes$363 · 2 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $120K lifetime bet $1.7K on Yes at 64¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

De La Cruz Wins TX-35 GOP Runoff, Republican Odds Jump to 46%Republican probability in TX-35 rose 8 points to 46% after Trump-backed De La Cruz won the GOP runoff. Casar's exit leaves Democrats without an incumbent.Sep 7, 2026TX-35 Poll: De La Cruz Leads by 1 in a District Built for GOP +10De La Cruz leads Garcia 45%-44% in a Trump +10 district. Garcia holds a slight cash-on-hand edge at $323K vs. $272K heading into fall.Sep 3, 2026Garcia Wins TX-35 Primary, but Cook Still Rates District 'Likely R'Democratic odds rose 12 points after Galindo lost over antisemitism accusations. Garcia now faces Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz in November.Aug 29, 2026TX-35: Why Traders Cut De La Cruz to 32% in a Trump+10 DistrictDe La Cruz dropped from 47% to 32% on Kalshi and Polymarket in three days. Garcia holds more cash on hand despite being the challenger.Aug 27, 2026