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Live prediction market odds for UT-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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UT-01 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Ben McAdams (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USRiley Owen (R)4¢25.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Ben McAdams (D) about a 95.1% chance. Riley Owen (R) follows at 3.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.2 percentage points.

Traders give Ben McAdams (D) about a 95.1% chance. Riley Owen (R) follows at 3.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the UT-01 House election set for November 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BM
Ben McAdams (D)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.7%94¢97¢3¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
RO
Riley Owen (R)
4%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.2%2¢6¢94¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.8%4¢4¢96¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Ben McAdams (D)

Ben McAdams is a Democratic candidate for Utah's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 general election. He served as the U.S. Representative for Utah's 4th Congressional District from 2019 to 2021 and was the Mayor of Salt Lake County from 2013 to 2019. McAdams has a history of public service and is seeking to represent Utah's 1st Congressional District in the upcoming election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.2%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ben McAdams (D)

95.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: UT-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for UT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the UT-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the UT-01 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, local and national political trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for elections like UT-01?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of market participants about the likelihood of each candidate winning.

What is the significance of the UT-01 House election?

The UT-01 House election is significant as it could impact the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Outcomes in this race may also serve as a barometer for national political trends ahead of the 2026 elections.

What does the UT-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest UT-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Ben McAdams (D): 95.7¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Riley Owen (R): 4.2¢ on Kalshi, 3.8¢ on Polymarket, 3.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

Who will be the Democratic nominee for UT-01 in 2026?WONPre-event: 83%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for UT-01 in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONBen McAdams (D)
Pre-event: 83%