Prediction HuntPrediction.com
Odds
Sports OddsNFL OddsNCAAF OddsMLB OddsTennis OddsElections OddsPolitics OddsEntertainment OddsEconomics OddsCrypto Odds
Futures
NFL FuturesMLB FuturesNCAAF FuturesMidterm Elections
All MarketsTrending
PicksArbitrageSmart MoneyAgentsPaper Trading Simulator
Promos
Best Prediction Market PromosKalshi Promo CodePolymarket Promo Code
Compare
Best Prediction Market Apps
NewsCalculatorsBlogIndustry Data
OverviewDocumentationQuickstartPricing
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
Prediction HuntPrediction.com

The home of prediction markets

Markets

  • Sports Odds
  • NFL Odds
  • College Football Odds
  • MLB Odds
  • Tennis Odds
  • Election Odds
  • Politics Odds
  • Entertainment Odds
  • Economics Odds
  • Crypto Odds
  • Results Archive
  • Trending

Edge

  • Picks
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Paper Trading Simulator
  • AI Agents

Compare

  • Best Prediction Market Apps
  • Best Prediction Market Promos

Resources

  • News
  • Blog
  • Calculators
  • X
  • Discord

API

  • API Overview
  • API Documentation
  • Quickstart
  • API Pricing

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • API Terms
PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for VA-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
Sign-up bonus

Get a $35 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

XTelegramWhatsAppReddit

VA-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jennifer McClellan (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USRobert Murray (R)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jennifer McClellan (D) about a 95.5% chance. Robert Murray (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Traders give Jennifer McClellan (D) about a 95.5% chance. Robert Murray (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-04 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election will play a crucial role in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative priorities and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
Jennifer McClellan (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.6%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.4%95¢98¢2¢5¢
RM
Robert Murray (R)
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi28.57x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.9%2¢4¢97¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%3¢5¢95¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.6%1¢2¢98¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jennifer McClellan (D)

Jennifer McClellan is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 4th congressional district. She previously served in the Virginia State Senate from 2017 to 2023. McClellan has a strong legislative record, having passed over 370 pieces of legislation during her tenure in the Virginia General Assembly.

About Robert Murray (R)

Robert P. Murray is the Republican nominee for Virginia's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. He was selected by the 4th Congressional District Republican Committee via a caucus in July 2026. As a Chesterfield native and tech professional, he is running on a platform emphasizing health, wealth, and respect for all, with a focus on Second Amendment rights and direct voter outreach.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jennifer McClellan (D)

95.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the VA-04 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway public opinion leading up to the election.

How does the VA-04 House race fit into the broader electoral landscape?

The VA-04 race is part of the 2026 midterm elections, which are critical for both major parties. Control of the House could hinge on tight races like this one, affecting future legislation.

When will the VA-04 House race results be available?

Results for the VA-04 House race will be available on election night, November 3, 2026. However, final certified results may take several days to be confirmed due to mail-in ballots and close counts.

What does the VA-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jennifer McClellan (D): 95.6¢ on Kalshi, 96.4¢ on Polymarket, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Robert Murray (R): 2.9¢ on Kalshi, 1.6¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Related Markets

Blue wave in 2026?

View

2028 US Presidential General Election

View

PA-13 House Election Winner

View

Maine Senate Election Winner

View

Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds