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Live prediction market odds for VA-06 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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VA-06 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Ben Cline (R)93¢1.08xKalshiBeth Macy (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Ben Cline (R) about a 92.5% chance. Beth Macy (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Ben Cline (R) about a 92.5% chance. Beth Macy (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the VA-06 House Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This election could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflects broader national trends in voter sentiment and party support.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BC
Ben Cline (R)
92%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket93¢
Kalshi1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.5%88¢93¢7¢12¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%92¢94¢6¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.0%92¢93¢7¢8¢
BM
Beth Macy (D)
7%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%5¢10¢90¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Ben Cline (R)

Ben Cline is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 6th congressional district, serving since 2019. Before Congress, he was a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002 to 2018. He is a member of the Republican Study Committee and has served as its Vice Chairman.

About Beth Macy (D)

Beth Macy is a Democratic candidate for Virginia's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. She is a journalist and author, known for her book 'Dopesick,' which was adapted into an Emmy-winning Hulu series. Macy's extensive reporting on rural communities and the opioid crisis underscores her commitment to addressing systemic issues affecting Virginia's 6th District.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ben Cline (R)

92.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-06 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-06 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is at stake in the VA-06 House Election?

Control of the House of Representatives could be affected by the outcome of this election. It may also impact local and national policy agendas.

How do prediction markets reflect voter sentiment for this election?

Prediction markets aggregate real-time odds based on various factors, including polling data and campaign developments. They provide insights into how investors perceive the likelihood of different outcomes.

What factors might influence the odds for candidates in this election?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and current political issues affecting the district. Changes in voter demographics and turnout rates will also play a crucial role.

What does the VA-06 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-06 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Ben Cline (R): 90.5¢ on Kalshi, 93.0¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Beth Macy (D): 7.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Republican Odds in VA-06 Drop to 75% in Second Unexplained CollapseKalshi prices VA-06 Republican at 80%, Polymarket at 70%. The 10-point platform spread suggests thin order books, not new information.Jun 12, 2026VA-06 Republican Odds Reach 88% as Beth Macy Enters RaceRepublican odds rebounded from a 36% March low after Beth Macy's entry replaced an abstract Democratic threat with a first-time candidate facing a 37-point deficit.Jun 2, 2026VA-06 Republican Odds Drop 15 Points Despite Cline's 26-Point Win in 2024GOP falls from 52% to 37% on Kalshi and Polymarket in 72 hours. Cline holds $521K cash on hand; no challenger or poll explains the move.Mar 31, 2026VA-06 Democrats Hit 51% Despite Cline's 26-Point Win in 2024Markets still price VA-06 as a coin flip after an 8-point drop; Cook rates it Solid R and no Democratic candidate has raised meaningful money.Mar 23, 2026