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Live prediction market odds for VA-07 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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VA-07 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Eugene Vindman (D)95¢1.05xKalshiDoug Ollivant (R)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Eugene Vindman (D) about a 92.8% chance. Doug Ollivant (R) follows at 6.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Eugene Vindman (D) about a 92.8% chance. Doug Ollivant (R) follows at 6.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-07 House race. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, depending on voter turnout and campaign strategies leading up to November 2026.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
EV
Eugene Vindman (D)
93%
Kalshi95¢
—
Polymarket94¢
Kalshi1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.0%92¢95¢5¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
DO
Doug Ollivant (R)
7%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.1%5¢8¢92¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.8%7¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Eugene Vindman (D)

Eugene Vindman is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 7th congressional district, serving since January 2025. He previously served as a deputy legal advisor for the National Security Council and retired from the U.S. Army as a lieutenant colonel after 25 years of service. Vindman is a member of the House Armed Services and Agriculture Committees, focusing on military readiness and agricultural policy.

About Doug Ollivant (R)

Doug Ollivant is a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel and candidate for Virginia's 7th Congressional District. He served two combat tours in Iraq, advised coalition forces in Afghanistan, and taught at West Point. Ollivant leads Mantid International, a global consulting firm combating corruption and promoting accountability.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Eugene Vindman (D)

92.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-07 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-7 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-07 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the VA-07 House race?

Factors include voter turnout, campaign funding, and key endorsements. Additionally, local issues and national trends may sway public opinion leading up to the election.

When is the VA-07 House election scheduled?

The VA-07 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with the general election, which includes other federal and state races.

How do prediction markets work for elections like VA-07?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly based on new information or events.

What does the VA-07 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-07 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Eugene Vindman (D): 92.0¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket; Doug Ollivant (R): 7.1¢ on Kalshi, 6.8¢ on Polymarket, 6.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Republicans Hold 12% Odds to Win VA-07 Despite Full Primary FieldGOP dropped 25 points from its redistricting peak to 12%, even after Harding, Ollivant, and Smithers qualified for the August 4 primary.Jun 25, 2026Republican Win Probability in VA-07 Falls to 12% After No Candidates FileGOP odds dropped 26pp in three days. Democrats have multiple funded candidates, with McAuliffe reporting $1.06M cash on hand as of March 31.Jun 20, 2026VA-07 Democrats Hit 88%, But Vindman's 2.6-Point 2024 Win Casts DoubtRedistricting moved VA-07 from D+2.6 to Cook's 'Solid D,' but no public poll of the new district has been released and USPollingData rates it only 'Lean D.'Jun 17, 2026