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Live prediction market odds for VA-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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VA-11 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

James Walkinshaw (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USArthur Purves (R)2¢50.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give James Walkinshaw (D) about a 97.6% chance. Arthur Purves (R) follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give James Walkinshaw (D) about a 97.6% chance. Arthur Purves (R) follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-11 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence party control in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JW
James Walkinshaw (D)
98%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.5%94¢99¢1¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
97.0%95¢97¢3¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.4%97¢98¢2¢3¢
AP
Arthur Purves (R)
1%
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi62.50x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.9%0¢2¢98¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.4%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About James Walkinshaw (D)

James Walkinshaw is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 11th Congressional District, serving on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and the Committee on Homeland Security. He previously served as Chief of Staff to U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly and as a member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. His extensive experience in federal policy and local governance makes him a key figure in Virginia's political landscape.

About Arthur Purves (R)

Arthur G. Purves is the Republican nominee for Virginia's 11th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. He has served as president of the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance since 1996. His extensive experience in taxpayer advocacy and fiscal policy positions him as a significant contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

James Walkinshaw (D)

97.6% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-11 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-11 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the VA-11 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly impact market perceptions.

How does the VA-11 House race fit into the broader electoral landscape?

The outcome of this race could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Additionally, it serves as a bellwether for voter attitudes leading into the 2026 midterm elections.

When will the odds for the VA-11 House winner be updated?

Odds are updated in real-time as new information, such as polling results and candidate announcements, becomes available. Market fluctuations reflect the latest developments in the race.

What does the VA-11 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-11 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are James Walkinshaw (D): 98.5¢ on Kalshi, 97.4¢ on Polymarket, 97.0¢ on Polymarket US; Arthur Purves (R): 0.9¢ on Kalshi, 0.4¢ on Polymarket, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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