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Live prediction market odds for WA-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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WA-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Amanda McKinney (R)93¢1.08xKalshiJohn Duresky (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Amanda McKinney (R) about a 92.3% chance. John Duresky (D) follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Amanda McKinney (R) about a 92.3% chance. John Duresky (D) follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the WA-04 House race, set for November 2026. This election will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AM
Amanda McKinney (R)
92%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket92¢
Kalshi1.07x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢93¢7¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.0%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
JD
John Duresky (D)
7%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.3%5¢7¢93¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Amanda McKinney (R)

Amanda McKinney is the current Yakima County Commissioner in Washington State. She has served in this role since 2020, focusing on agriculture, public safety, and fiscal accountability. Her extensive experience in local government and commitment to Central Washington's values make her a significant candidate in the upcoming congressional race.

About John Duresky (D)

John Duresky is a retired U.S. Air Force major and former project control officer at the Hanford Site. He served 24 years in the Air Force, including as a Cyberspace Operations Officer. His extensive military and federal service underscores his commitment to public service.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

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Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Amanda McKinney (R)

92.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: WA-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket US.

Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the WA-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the WA-04 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also sway public perception and market odds.

How does the WA-04 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for national trends in voter behavior leading up to the 2026 elections.

When will the WA-04 House race take place?

The election for the WA-04 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, where multiple federal and state offices will be contested.

What does the WA-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest WA-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Amanda McKinney (R): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.0¢ on Polymarket, 93.0¢ on Polymarket US; John Duresky (D): 7.3¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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WA-04 GOP Retention Sits at 94%Republican odds jumped 13 points in three days as the market re-anchored to district fundamentals. The lone Democrat has raised $63.8K versus McKinney's $981.8K.Aug 14, 2026