Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 12 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Somaliland about a 9.0% chance. Jordan follows at 4.5%, Egypt follows at 4.4%, and Kuwait follows at 4.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.8 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
The Abraham Accords are agreements aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations. They were first signed in 2020, with the goal of fostering peace and cooperation in the region.
The market resolves based on official announcements of new countries joining the Abraham Accords. Only formal agreements recognized by the involved parties will count towards the resolution.
Odds are influenced by diplomatic negotiations, political statements, and shifts in regional alliances. News events related to Middle Eastern politics can cause significant fluctuations in market prices.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Somaliland: 9.0¢ on Polymarket; Jordan: 4.5¢ on Polymarket; Egypt: 4.4¢ on Polymarket; Kuwait: 4.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
