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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for AZ-02?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Which party will win the House race for AZ-02?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Eli Crane (R)64¢1.56xKalshiJonathan Nez (D)35¢2.86xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Eli Crane (R) about a 63.2% chance. Jonathan Nez (D) follows at 35.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Eli Crane (R) about a 63.2% chance. Jonathan Nez (D) follows at 35.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for AZ-02 ahead of the 2026 elections. The outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and could impact legislative agendas moving forward.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
EC
Eli Crane (R)
63%
Kalshi64¢
Polymarket US64¢
Polymarket63¢
Kalshi1.56x64¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
PolymarketPolymarket
62.5%62¢63¢37¢38¢
JN
Jonathan Nez (D)
35%
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket US35¢
Polymarket35¢
Polymarket US2.86x35¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.5%35¢36¢64¢65¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
35.0%34¢35¢65¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
34.5%34¢35¢65¢66¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Eli Crane (R)

Eli Crane is the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. Before entering politics, he served in the U.S. Navy SEALs from 2001 to 2014 and co-founded Bottle Breacher, a veteran-owned business that manufactures bottle openers made from shell casings. His military background and entrepreneurial experience contribute to his qualifications in representing Arizona's 2nd district.

About Jonathan Nez (D)

Jonathan Nez is a Navajo politician and former President of the Navajo Nation, serving from 2019 to 2023. He previously held the position of Vice President of the Navajo Nation from 2015 to 2019. Nez is currently campaigning for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, aiming to become the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Eli Crane (R)

63.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for AZ-02?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AZ-02 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the AZ-02 House race?

Key factors include voter turnout, candidate popularity, and campaign funding. Local issues and national trends may also sway voter preferences.

How does the AZ-02 race fit into the broader election landscape?

AZ-02 is considered a competitive district that could flip control in the House. Its outcome may reflect national sentiments and impact future elections.

What is the significance of tracking prediction markets for this race?

Prediction markets provide insights into public sentiment and potential outcomes based on real-time data. They can serve as indicators of candidate viability and voter engagement.

What does the Which party will win the House race for AZ-02 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for AZ-02 odds?

The latest available prices are Eli Crane (R): 63.5¢ on Kalshi, 62.5¢ on Polymarket, 63.5¢ on Polymarket US; Jonathan Nez (D): 35.5¢ on Kalshi, 34.5¢ on Polymarket, 35.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Nez Reaches 38% in AZ-02 After Poll Shows 2-Point RaceA late-August poll put Crane ahead only 46-44 in a Trump +double-digit district, triggering an 8-point market move for Nez over three days.Sep 26, 2026