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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for AZ-08?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Which party will win the House race for AZ-08?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Abe Hamadeh (R)85¢1.18xKalshiBernadette Greene-Placentia (D)16¢6.25xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Abe Hamadeh (R) about a 83.5% chance. Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) follows at 15.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Abe Hamadeh (R) about a 83.5% chance. Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) follows at 15.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for AZ-08 ahead of the 2026 elections. This contest could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AH
Abe Hamadeh (R)
84%
Kalshi85¢
Polymarket US85¢
Polymarket83¢
Kalshi1.18x85¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.0%84¢85¢15¢16¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
84.5%84¢85¢15¢16¢
PolymarketPolymarket
82.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
BG
Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D)
15%
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket US16¢
Polymarket18¢
Polymarket US6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
13.3%10¢17¢83¢91¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
15.0%15¢16¢84¢85¢
PolymarketPolymarket
17.0%16¢18¢82¢84¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Abe Hamadeh (R)

Abe Hamadeh is the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 8th Congressional District. He served as a prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office and as a U.S. Army Reserve Captain and Intelligence Officer. He is recognized for his commitment to limited government principles and has been awarded the Defender of Limited Government Award for his voting record.

About Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D)

Bernadette Greene-Placentia is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Arizona's 8th Congressional District. She has over 27 years of experience as a long-haul truck driver and small business owner. Her extensive background in the transportation industry and small business operations provides her with a unique perspective on economic and infrastructure issues.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Abe Hamadeh (R)

83.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for AZ-08?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AZ-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AZ-08 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the AZ-08 House race?

Key factors include voter demographics, local issues, and national political trends. Additionally, campaign funding and candidate visibility will play significant roles.

How does the AZ-08 House race impact the overall congressional landscape?

Winning AZ-08 could shift the balance of power in the House, affecting legislative agendas. Both parties will prioritize resources in this competitive district.

When will the AZ-08 House race take place?

The election for the AZ-08 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, which typically sees higher voter turnout.

What does the Which party will win the House race for AZ-08 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for AZ-08 odds?

The latest available prices are Abe Hamadeh (R): 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 82.0¢ on Polymarket, 84.5¢ on Polymarket US; Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D): 13.3¢ on Kalshi, 17.0¢ on Polymarket, 15.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

AZ-08 Jumps to 83% Republican With No Catalyst and a 17% Democratic GapEvery major forecaster rates AZ-08 Solid Republican, yet markets still price Democrats at 17%. No polls exist for this race and no challenger has raised meaningful money.Sep 6, 2026Hamadeh's GOP Odds Hit 85% in AZ-08, Up 10 Points in Three DaysRepublican chances in AZ-08 climbed from 75% to 85% in 72 hours with no single confirmed catalyst, leaving the Democratic window at roughly one in six.Aug 29, 2026