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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NY-19?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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Which party will win the House race for NY-19?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Josh Riley (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USPeter Oberacker (R)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Josh Riley (D) about a 95.8% chance. Peter Oberacker (R) follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Traders give Josh Riley (D) about a 95.8% chance. Peter Oberacker (R) follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for NY-19, set for November 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a key focus for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JR
Josh Riley (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.2%95¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.3%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PO
Peter Oberacker (R)ARB
3%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.3%1¢5¢95¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.6%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Josh Riley (D)

Josh Riley is the U.S. Representative for New York's 19th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. Before his election, he was general counsel to Senator Al Franken on the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. His extensive experience in public service and law makes him a significant figure in New York politics.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Josh Riley (D)

95.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for NY-19?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-19 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-19 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the NY-19 House race?

Factors include local demographics, historical voting patterns, and the candidates' campaign strategies. Additionally, national political trends and issues may sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for the NY-19 race?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the election outcome. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or reactions to campaign developments.

What is at stake in the NY-19 House race?

Winning the NY-19 House seat could impact the overall control of the House of Representatives. This race is particularly important as it may affect legislative priorities and party influence in future sessions.

What does the Which party will win the House race for NY-19 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for NY-19 odds?

The latest available prices are Josh Riley (D): 96.2¢ on Kalshi, 95.3¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Peter Oberacker (R): 3.3¢ on Kalshi, 4.6¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Democratic Party Hits 81% in NY-19 as Socialist Wave Bypasses RileyRiley's 10-to-1 fundraising edge and a weak GOP field drove a 12pp surge in 3 days, even as progressive insurgents toppled NYC Democrats.Jun 25, 2026NY-19 House Race: Republican Odds Hit 38% With No News CatalystA 12-to-1 cash-on-hand deficit against incumbent Josh Riley contradicts the GOP's post-primary probability surge in this Lean Democratic district.Jun 22, 2026NY-19 Market Flips GOP-Favored at 54% Despite 12-to-1 Cash GapCook still rates the seat 'Lean D.' Oberacker won the GOP nomination in April 2026 but has raised only $326K total against Riley's $3.1M.Jun 8, 2026