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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NY-23?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Which party will win the House race for NY-23?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Nick Langworthy (R)94¢1.06xPolymarket USAaron Gies (D)5¢20.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Nick Langworthy (R) about a 94.7% chance. Aaron Gies (D) follows at 4.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.1 percentage points.

Traders give Nick Langworthy (R) about a 94.7% chance. Aaron Gies (D) follows at 4.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for NY-23, set for November 3, 2026. The outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a key race for both parties as they strategize for the upcoming elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
NL
Nick Langworthy (R)
95%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.0%93¢96¢4¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.6%94¢96¢4¢6¢
AG
Aaron Gies (D)
5%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.8%3¢7¢93¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%3¢6¢94¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Nick Langworthy (R)

Nick Langworthy is the U.S. Representative for New York's 23rd congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. He previously chaired the New York State Republican Committee from 2019 to 2023. His extensive leadership in state politics and current congressional role make him a key figure in the NY-23 House race.

About Aaron Gies (D)

Aaron Gies is a theology and Franciscan studies faculty member at St. Bonaventure University. He won the Democratic nomination for New York's 23rd Congressional District in June 2026, defeating Kevin Stocker. Gies is running for Congress to represent the Southern Tier and Western New York regions.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.1%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Nick Langworthy (R)

94.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for NY-23?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-23 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the NY-23 House race?

Key factors include voter turnout, candidate popularity, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national trends and party support can sway the election results.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for the NY-23 race?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various outcomes, providing insights into how investors perceive the likelihood of each party winning. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and campaign dynamics.

What role does NY-23 play in the broader electoral landscape?

As a competitive district, NY-23 can serve as a bellwether for national trends in voter behavior. Its results may impact party strategies and resource allocation in future elections.

What does the Which party will win the House race for NY-23 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for NY-23 odds?

The latest available prices are Nick Langworthy (R): 95.0¢ on Kalshi, 95.6¢ on Polymarket, 93.5¢ on Polymarket US; Aaron Gies (D): 4.8¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Nick Langworthy (R)

Smart Money Consensus$82
$82Yes
Smart Traders Split1
1Yes
Polymarket USBuy Yes at 94¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Nick Langworthy (R)
Yes$82 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow