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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for PA-16?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Which party will win the House race for PA-16?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Mike Kelly (R)92¢1.09xKalshiJustin Wagner (D)9¢11.11xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Mike Kelly (R) about a 91.5% chance. Justin Wagner (D) follows at 7.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Traders give Mike Kelly (R) about a 91.5% chance. Justin Wagner (D) follows at 7.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for PA-16, set for November 3, 2026. This election will be pivotal in determining the balance of power in Congress, as both parties vie for control in a competitive district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MK
Mike Kelly (R)
92%
Kalshi92¢
—
Polymarket92¢
Kalshi1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.5%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.5%91¢92¢8¢9¢
JW
Justin Wagner (D)
8%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US9¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%6¢9¢91¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
8.0%8¢9¢91¢92¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.6%6¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Mike Kelly (R)

Mike Kelly is the current U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, serving his seventh term in the 118th Congress. He previously chaired the House Ways & Means Committee's Subcommittee on Tax, overseeing federal tax policy. His extensive experience in tax legislation and representation of Pennsylvania's 16th District make him a key figure in this election.

About Justin Wagner (D)

Justin Wagner is a Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District in the 2026 election. He is a U.S. Army veteran who served in Iraq and works as a senior automation engineer. Wagner's campaign focuses on workers' rights, veterans' issues, and healthcare access.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Mike Kelly (R)

91.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for PA-16?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for PA-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the PA-16 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the PA-16 House race?

Key factors include voter demographics, local issues, and national political trends. Polling data and candidate visibility also play significant roles in shaping market perceptions.

How does the PA-16 race impact the overall congressional landscape?

The outcome of this race could shift the majority in the House of Representatives. A win for either party may affect legislative priorities and the effectiveness of governance.

What historical trends exist for PA-16 elections?

Past elections in PA-16 have shown fluctuating party control, reflecting broader national trends. Understanding voter turnout and party loyalty in the district can provide insights into future outcomes.

What does the Which party will win the House race for PA-16 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for PA-16 odds?

The latest available prices are Mike Kelly (R): 91.5¢ on Kalshi, 91.5¢ on Polymarket; Justin Wagner (D): 9.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.6¢ on Polymarket, 8.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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