Which party will win the House race for TX-38?
Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for TX-38?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for TX-38, set for November 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for TX-38, set for November 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties' strategies leading up to the election.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Jon Bonck (R) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Melissa McDonough (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-38 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-38 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Key factors include voter turnout, demographic shifts, and campaign funding. Additionally, national political trends and local issues will play significant roles in shaping voter preferences.
TX-38 is part of a larger strategy for both parties as they aim to secure a majority in the House. The outcome may reflect national sentiments and impact future legislative agendas.
Texas has traditionally leaned Republican, but recent elections have shown competitive races in suburban districts. Changes in voter demographics and political engagement have made some districts more competitive.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
