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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for TX-38?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Which party will win the House race for TX-38?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jon Bonck (R)92¢1.09xPolymarket USMelissa McDonough (D)8¢12.50xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Jon Bonck (R) about a 91.1% chance. Melissa McDonough (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.7 percentage points.

Traders give Jon Bonck (R) about a 91.1% chance. Melissa McDonough (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.7 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for TX-38, set for November 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties' strategies leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JB
Jon Bonck (R)
91%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket91¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.8%90¢93¢7¢10¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.5%90¢91¢9¢10¢
MM
Melissa McDonough (D)
7%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US8¢
Polymarket9¢
Polymarket US12.50x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.6%6¢10¢90¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢8¢92¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.9%6¢9¢91¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jon Bonck (R)

Jon Bonck is a mortgage banker and real estate professional from Houston, Texas. He is the Republican nominee for Texas's 38th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. Bonck has received endorsements from President Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House Speaker Mike Johnson.

About Melissa McDonough (D)

Melissa McDonough is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 38th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. She has nearly 30 years of experience as a realtor and has owned and managed a real estate brokerage overseeing more than 45 agents. McDonough has also served as a national marketing director across 24 states and led the Women's Council of Realtors' Houston chapter.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.7%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jon Bonck (R)

91.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for TX-38?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-38 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-38 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the TX-38 House race?

Key factors include voter turnout, demographic shifts, and campaign funding. Additionally, national political trends and local issues will play significant roles in shaping voter preferences.

How does the TX-38 House race fit into the broader electoral landscape?

TX-38 is part of a larger strategy for both parties as they aim to secure a majority in the House. The outcome may reflect national sentiments and impact future legislative agendas.

What historical trends exist for House races in Texas?

Texas has traditionally leaned Republican, but recent elections have shown competitive races in suburban districts. Changes in voter demographics and political engagement have made some districts more competitive.

What does the Which party will win the House race for TX-38 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for TX-38 odds?

The latest available prices are Jon Bonck (R): 91.8¢ on Kalshi, 90.5¢ on Polymarket, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Melissa McDonough (D): 7.6¢ on Kalshi, 5.9¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Jon Bonck Drops 8 Points in TX-38 With No Local ThreatBonck falls from 93% to 85% in a Solid R district. His opponent has raised just $67K and no scandal has surfaced, pointing to national repricing.Sep 25, 2026