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Live prediction market odds for Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

2026-08-18

About This Market

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor. This primary is crucial as it will determine the candidates who will compete in the general election, impacting the state's political landscape and governance.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
AC
Adam Crum
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
BW
Bernadette Wilson
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.9%0¢100¢0¢100¢
CB
Click Bishop
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
DB
Dave Bronson
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.2%0¢100¢0¢100¢
ED
Edna DeVries
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Candidate Spotlight

About Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. She is the founder and CEO of Denali Disposal, a waste management company. She is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in Alaska's top-four primary for governor.

About Click Bishop

Click Bishop is a Republican politician and former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. He served in the Alaska Senate from 2013 to 2025, representing Interior Alaska. He is currently a candidate in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. He served as Anchorage's mayor from 2021 to 2024 and managed Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport from January to September 2025. His gubernatorial bid is significant due to his prior leadership roles in Alaska's largest city and major airport.

About Edna DeVries

Edna DeVries is the current mayor of Matanuska-Susitna Borough, a position she has held since January 2021. She previously served as mayor of Palmer, Alaska, from December 2016 to November 2021, and as a member of the Alaska State Senate from 1984 to 1988. She is a candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, aiming to succeed term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy.

About Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala is a podiatrist and member of the Alaska State Medical Board. He was appointed to the board in 2021 by Governor Mike Dunleavy. He is a candidate in Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election.

About Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom is the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, serving since December 2022. She previously served as Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections from 2018 to 2022. She is a candidate in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Shelley Hughes

Shelley Hughes is a Republican candidate for Governor of Alaska. She served as a state senator from Palmer, Alaska, from 2017 until her resignation in November 2025 to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. Her extensive legislative experience and leadership roles make her a significant contender in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Tom Begich

Tom Begich is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Minority Leader of the Alaska Senate from 2019 to 2023. His legislative experience and leadership roles make him a significant contender in Alaska's upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Treg Taylor

Treg Taylor is a former Attorney General of Alaska, having served from 2021 to 2025. He resigned in August 2025 to run for governor in the 2026 election. His tenure as Attorney General is relevant to this prediction market.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates14
Leader

Adam Crum

0.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Dave Bronson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of Alaska's top-four primary?

Alaska's top-four primary allows voters to select their preferred candidates regardless of party affiliation. This system aims to promote broader representation and can lead to unexpected outcomes in the general election.

When is the Alaska gubernatorial primary scheduled?

The Alaska gubernatorial primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. This date is significant as it sets the stage for the candidates who will compete in the subsequent general election.

How does the top-four primary affect candidate selection?

In a top-four primary, the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of their party. This format encourages a more diverse range of candidates and can alter traditional party dynamics.

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Adam Crum: 4.1¢ on Kalshi; Bernadette Wilson: 99.9¢ on Kalshi; Click Bishop: 0.1¢ on Kalshi; Dave Bronson: 97.2¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Bishop at 36%: Can He Hold a Top-Four Slot in Alaska's Primary?Bishop has shed 20 points since May with no scandal. Kalshi prices him at 37%, Polymarket at 35%, nine days before the August 18 vote.Aug 9, 2026Wilson at 86% to Advance in Alaska Governor PrimaryAlaska's top-four format lets Wilson advance without winning outright. Polling 14-22% across surveys, no poll shows her outside the top four.Aug 7, 2026Treg Taylor Climbs to 27% to Advance in Alaska Governor PrimaryTaylor's odds reversed from a mid-July low of 18%, with Kalshi pricing him at 30% versus Polymarket's 24% ahead of the August 18 top-four primary.Aug 2, 2026Bronson Back to 46% to Advance in Alaska Governor PrimaryA 12-point drop and 10-point recovery over two weeks produced a net 2-point move, with August 18 primary resolution three weeks out.Jul 29, 2026