Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12? | Historical Odds

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Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in New York's 12th congressional district.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in New York's 12th congressional district. This contest is pivotal as it could influence party dynamics and legislative priorities in a key urban area leading up to the 2026 elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Final Closing Odds

Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.

Question	Result
Alex Bores	No result
Andrew Cuomo	No result
Brad Hoylman-Sigal	No result
Brad Lander	No result
Cameron Kasky	No result
Candidate B	No result
Candidate C	No result
Candidate D	No result
Candidate E	No result

Candidate Spotlight

About Alex Bores

Alex Bores is the Assemblymember for New York's 73rd District, encompassing parts of Manhattan. He previously served as a software engineer and product lead at tech companies and startups. He is running for Congress in New York's 12th District, aiming to bring his legislative experience to the federal level.

About Jack Schlossberg

Jack Schlossberg is a Democratic candidate for New York's 12th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He previously worked as a political correspondent for Vogue during the 2024 election. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a prominent figure in the race for the Democratic nomination in NY-12.

About Micah Lasher

Micah Lasher is a New York State Assemblymember representing District 69. He previously served as Director of Policy for Governor Kathy Hochul and Chief of Staff to Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. Lasher is running for Congress in New York's 12th District, aiming to succeed retiring Representative Jerry Nadler.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Jack Schlossberg wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

Democratic Party Republican Party

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracledemocrats.orgConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in NY-12?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play crucial roles in shaping market predictions.

When is the primary election for NY-12?

The primary election for New York's 12th congressional district is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines the Democratic nominee for the general election.

How does the Democratic nominee for NY-12 affect national politics?

The nominee's position can impact legislative agendas and party strategies at the national level. A strong candidate may also influence voter turnout and engagement in the general election.

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12: what were the odds?

No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.