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Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Gadi Eisenkot60¢1.67xKalshiGadi Eizenkot51¢1.96xPolymarketBenjamin Netanyahu30¢3.33xPolymarket
Compare all 22 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Gadi Eisenkot about a 60.0% chance. Gadi Eizenkot follows at 50.6%, Benjamin Netanyahu follows at 29.5%, and Naftali Bennett follows at 14.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Gadi Eisenkot about a 60.0% chance. Gadi Eizenkot follows at 50.6%, Benjamin Netanyahu follows at 29.5%, and Naftali Bennett follows at 14.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next new Prime Minister of Israel. This political contest is crucial as it will shape Israel's domestic and foreign policies amid ongoing regional tensions and economic challenges.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
PredictItPredictIt
Best price
GE
Gadi Eisenkot
single venue60%
Kalshi60¢
—
—
Kalshi1.67x60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
60.0%51¢60¢40¢49¢
GE
Gadi Eizenkot
single venue51%
—
Polymarket51¢
—
Polymarket1.96x51¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
50.6%50¢51¢49¢50¢
BN
Benjamin Netanyahu
30%
—
Polymarket30¢
PredictIt33¢
Polymarket3.33x30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
29.5%29¢30¢70¢71¢
PredictItPredictIt
31.0%26¢33¢67¢74¢
NB
Naftali Bennett
14%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket13¢
—
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
15.0%9¢15¢85¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.0%12¢13¢87¢88¢
AL
Avigdor Lieberman
3%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket3¢
—
Kalshi11.36x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.7%2¢9¢91¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.6%3¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eisenkot is the leader of the 'Yashar! with Eisenkot' political party in Israel. He served as the 21st Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces from 2015 to 2019. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next Prime Minister of Israel.

About Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is the current Prime Minister of Israel, serving his sixth term since December 2022. He previously held the position from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, making him Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His extensive experience and leadership in Israeli politics make him a central figure in discussions about Israel's future leadership.

About Naftali Bennett

Naftali Bennett is the leader of the political party Bennett 2026. He served as Israel's prime minister from June 2021 to June 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next prime minister of Israel.

About Israel Katz

Israel Katz is the current Defense Minister of Israel and a member of the Security Cabinet. He previously served as Foreign Minister from 2019 to 2020 and as Energy Minister from 2022 to 2024. His extensive experience in key government positions makes him a significant contender in the upcoming Israeli prime ministerial election.

About Yossi Cohen

Yossi Cohen is the former Director of the Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, serving from 2016 to 2021. Prior to that, he was appointed National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2013. Cohen is relevant to this prediction market due to his recent public statements expressing interest in running for Prime Minister, indicating potential future political ambitions.

About Yair Lapid

Yair Lapid is the Leader of the Opposition in Israel's Knesset. He served as Prime Minister from July to December 2022 and as Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2022. He is a central figure in Israeli politics, leading the centrist Yesh Atid party.

About Yoav Gallant

Yoav Gallant is a former Israeli Defense Minister and member of the Likud party. He served as Defense Minister from 2022 to 2024, overseeing military operations during the Israel-Hamas War. Gallant's tenure and political affiliations make him a notable candidate in discussions about Israel's future leadership.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
The New York Times
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates22
Leader

Gadi Eisenkot

60.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Resolution Oracles
The New York Times

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Odds are influenced by party popularity, polling data, and public sentiment. Additionally, recent political events and coalition dynamics play a significant role.

How often do the odds change for this political event?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major political announcements or events such as elections and debates. Real-time updates reflect the latest shifts in public opinion and political developments.

What is the significance of the next Prime Minister for Israel?

The next Prime Minister will have a profound impact on Israel's governance, security policies, and international relations. Their leadership will also influence the socio-economic landscape of the country.

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Gadi Eisenkot: 60.0¢ on Kalshi; Gadi Eizenkot: 50.6¢ on Polymarket; Benjamin Netanyahu: 29.5¢ on Polymarket, 31.0¢ on PredictIt; Naftali Bennett: 15.0¢ on Kalshi, 13.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Netanyahu Trails Eisenkot 30–60 as Likud Primary Sparks 4x Volume SpikeTrading hit $210K on Aug 27, nearly 4x the weekly average. Netanyahu's rejection of Trump's Gaza plan is adding pressure on coalition math.Aug 28, 2026Netanyahu at 46% Trails Eisenkot for Israel PM After Likud InjunctionPolymarket prices Netanyahu at 34% and PredictIt at 59%, a 25-point gap reflecting different liquidity pools after the Likud convention was canceled.Jul 20, 2026Bennett Drops to 12% in PM Market Despite Election Date, Lapid AllianceBennett fell from 22% to 12% in 72 hours. New ultra-Orthodox exemption laws signal Netanyahu's coalition machinery fired before the campaign started.Jul 15, 2026
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Benjamin Netanyahu

Smart Money Consensus$3.2K
$264Yes$3.0KNo
Smart Traders Split3
1Yes2No
PolymarketBuy No at 71¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Gadi Eizenkot
Yes$2.5K · 6 whales
No$107 · 1 whale
Benjamin Netanyahu
No$3.0K · 2 whales
Yes$264 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $791K lifetime bet $712 on No at 70¢

1h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $791K lifetime bet $910 on No at 70¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $422K lifetime bet $1.7K on Yes at 50¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $791K lifetime bet $933 on No at 70¢

3h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $156K lifetime sold $710 of No at 71¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Trade on Kalshi →

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Trump PardonLOSTPre-event: 50%Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 1%Maduro out in 2025?LOSTPre-event: 2%#1 Searched Person on Google this year?LOSTPre-event: 1%TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2025 Trump Pardon

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 50%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

Maduro out in 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 2%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%