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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 49.5% // +$4950.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?

2026-05-31

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next Prime Minister of Romania ahead of the May 2026 elections. Political dynamics, party strategies, and public sentiment will heavily influence the candidates' chances as the election date approaches.

Vasile Dîncu leads the “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania” event at 25.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Sorin Grindeanu (5.6%), Delia Velculescu (4.3%), Cătălin Drulă (3.1%), and Cătălin Predoiu (3.0%). A 49.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
VD
Vasile DîncuARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
SG
Sorin Grindeanu
6% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%6¢6¢94¢94¢
DV
Delia Velculescu
4% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
CD
Cătălin Drulă
2% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
CP
Cătălin Predoiu
3% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%3¢3¢97¢97¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Factors include party popularity, candidate profiles, and recent polling data. Economic conditions and public sentiment also play crucial roles in shaping voter preferences.

How do prediction markets work in the context of elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What is the significance of the 2026 Romanian elections?

The 2026 elections will determine the leadership direction of Romania, impacting domestic policies and international relations. The outcome could also influence the political landscape in Eastern Europe.

What is "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Vasile Dîncu leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sorin Grindeanu at 6%, Delia Velculescu at 4%, Cătălin Drulă at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?"?

Vasile Dîncu currently leads at 25% implied probability. Behind Vasile Dîncu, Sorin Grindeanu at 6% and Delia Velculescu at 4% and Cătălin Drulă at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread49.5%
Platforms2
Candidates19
Leader

Vasile Dîncu

25.3% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Mugur Isărescu, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?