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Live prediction market odds for Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Charles Booker27¢3.70xKalshiDan Osborn - NE-Sen52¢1.92xKalshiJames Talarico - TX-Sen18¢5.56xKalshi
Compare all 9 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Charles Booker about a 25.0% chance. Dan Osborn - NE-Sen follows at 18.3%, James Talarico - TX-Sen follows at 15.3%, and Alan Grayson - FL-Sen follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Charles Booker about a 25.0% chance. Dan Osborn - NE-Sen follows at 18.3%, James Talarico - TX-Sen follows at 15.3%, and Alan Grayson - FL-Sen follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who Bernie Sanders will endorse before the midterms. His endorsement could significantly influence voter turnout and campaign momentum for the candidates involved, impacting election outcomes in key races.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CB
Charles Booker
single venue25%
Kalshi27¢
—
Kalshi3.70x27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%23¢27¢73¢77¢
DO
Dan Osborn - NE-SenARB
18%
Kalshi52¢
Polymarket17¢
Kalshi1.92x52¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.0%18¢52¢48¢82¢
PolymarketPolymarket
16.5%4¢17¢84¢96¢
JT
James Talarico - TX-SenARB
15%
Kalshi18¢
Polymarket14¢
Kalshi5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%16¢18¢82¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢
AG
Alan Grayson - FL-Sen
single venue7%
—
Polymarket10¢
Polymarket9.90x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
6.9%4¢10¢90¢96¢
MP
Mary Peltola
single venue5%
Kalshi5¢
—
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Charles Booker

Charles Booker is a Democratic politician from Louisville, Kentucky. He served in the Kentucky House of Representatives from 2019 to 2021 and was the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022. He is currently running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mitch McConnell in 2026.

About Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

Dan Osborn is an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate from Nebraska. He previously led a successful strike at Omaha's Kellogg's plant in 2021. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a potential contender in the upcoming Senate race.

About James Talarico - TX-Sen

James Talarico is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. He previously served as a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 2018 to 2026. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a potential recipient of Bernie Sanders' endorsement before the midterms.

About Alan Grayson - FL-Sen

Alan Grayson is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida. He previously served as U.S. Representative for Florida's 8th and 9th congressional districts from 2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2017. Grayson's extensive legislative experience and progressive record make him a notable figure in Florida's political landscape.

About Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola is a Democratic politician and former U.S. Representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district. She was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, serving from 2022 to 2025. Peltola is currently running for the U.S. Senate in 2026, challenging incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan.

About Zach Wahls - IA-Sen

Zach Wahls is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Iowa, aiming to unseat incumbent Senator Joni Ernst in the 2026 election. He previously served as the Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate from 2020 to 2023. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a prominent figure in Iowa politics seeking Senator Sanders' endorsement.

About Antonio Delgado - NY-Gov

Antonio Delgado is the current Lieutenant Governor of New York, serving since May 2022. He previously represented New York's 19th Congressional District from 2019 to 2022. His experience in state and federal government makes him a key figure in New York's political landscape.

About Kshama Sawant - WA-09

Kshama Sawant is an independent candidate for Washington's 9th Congressional District, challenging incumbent Adam Smith. She served on the Seattle City Council from 2014 to 2024, championing progressive policies like the $15 minimum wage. Her candidacy is relevant as Bernie Sanders has endorsed progressive challengers in similar races, such as Zohran Mamdani in New York City.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCPoliticoPolitico EUReutersthe Associated PressThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Leader

Charles Booker

25.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Alan Grayson in the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCPoliticoPolitico EUReutersthe Associated PressThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Bernie Sanders' endorsement matter?

Bernie Sanders has a strong following among progressive voters, and his endorsement can sway public opinion and mobilize support for candidates. This influence is particularly crucial in tight races where every vote counts.

What factors could affect Sanders' endorsement decision?

Sanders' endorsement may depend on candidates' alignment with his progressive values, polling data, and the political climate leading up to the midterms. Additionally, the candidates' ability to resonate with his base will play a significant role.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about endorsements?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about future events like endorsements. As new information emerges, such as candidate performances or public statements, odds can shift rapidly to align with perceived probabilities.

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Charles Booker: 25.0¢ on Kalshi; Dan Osborn - NE-Sen: 20.0¢ on Kalshi, 16.5¢ on Polymarket; James Talarico - TX-Sen: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 13.5¢ on Polymarket; Alan Grayson - FL-Sen: 6.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Search Traffic Shifts to Talarico as Osborn Drops 9 Points in SandersOsborn falls from 28% to 20% over three days as endorsement-intent queries cluster around Texas progressive James Talarico, not Osborn.Sep 5, 2026Osborn Falls to 29% for Sanders EndorsementOsborn shed 15 points in 72 hours despite new progressive endorsements. Kalshi prices him at 37%, Polymarket at 21%, suggesting a rival surge drove the move.Aug 15, 2026Dan Osborn at 44% to Receive Sanders Endorsement With No Public SignalOsborn surged +20pp in 3 days after Sanders backed Brad Lander and a Michigan climate activist, driving a process-of-elimination thesis.Aug 12, 2026Sanders Endorsing Osborn in Nebraska? Odds Hit 36% After 8-Point JumpMarkets price Sanders backing Osborn at 36%, with Kalshi 6 points above Polymarket. No campaign has confirmed contact.Aug 5, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?WONPre-event: 86%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONCharles Booker
Pre-event: 86%