Will Pierre Poilievre resign as the conservative party leader before Jan 1, 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Will Pierre Poilievre resign as the conservative party leader before Jan 1, 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Before 2028 about a 14.0% chance. Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? follows at 8.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa.
The market resolves based on an official announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation from his position as Conservative Party leader. This announcement must occur before January 1, 2027.
Odds may fluctuate based on Poilievre's performance in party events, public opinion polls, and any challenges he faces within the party. Key developments in Canadian politics could also impact market sentiment.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the likelihood of Pierre Poilievre's resignation. These platforms provide real-time odds based on market sentiment and developments.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before 2028: 14.0¢ on Kalshi; Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?: 7.2¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
