Live prediction market odds for NY-12 House Election Winner. Compare prices across .
Listed Resolved
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Micah Lasher (D) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-12 House Election.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-12 House Election. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating due to candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Micah Lasher (D)WINNER | Yes |
Caroline Shinkle (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-12 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The winner is determined by the official election results as reported by the state election board. Votes are counted and certified after the polls close on November 3, 2026.
Odds can change based on various factors, including candidate debates, campaign events, and polling data. As voter sentiment shifts, so do the predictions reflected in the markets.
Election results for the NY-12 House Election will be announced on November 3, 2026. The final results will be certified shortly after the polls close.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Prediction Market Track Record
