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Live prediction market odds for NY-12 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NY-12 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Micah Lasher (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USCaroline Shinkle (R)4¢25.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Micah Lasher (D) about a 96.6% chance. Caroline Shinkle (R) follows at 2.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.8 percentage points.

Traders give Micah Lasher (D) about a 96.6% chance. Caroline Shinkle (R) follows at 2.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-12 House Election. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating due to candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ML
Micah Lasher (D)ARB
97%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.8%96¢99¢1¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.2%97¢97¢3¢3¢
CS
Caroline Shinkle (R)ARB
2%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢5¢95¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.1%1¢1¢99¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Micah Lasher (D)

Micah Lasher is a Democratic politician serving as a member of the New York State Assembly for District 69. He previously served as director of policy for New York Governor Kathy Hochul and director of state legislative affairs under New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Lasher has been a key figure in shaping state policy and legislation in New York.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Micah Lasher (D)

96.6% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NY-12 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-12 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the winner of the NY-12 House Election?

The winner is determined by the official election results as reported by the state election board. Votes are counted and certified after the polls close on November 3, 2026.

How do odds change leading up to the election?

Odds can change based on various factors, including candidate debates, campaign events, and polling data. As voter sentiment shifts, so do the predictions reflected in the markets.

When will the election results be announced?

Election results for the NY-12 House Election will be announced on November 3, 2026. The final results will be certified shortly after the polls close.

What does the NY-12 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NY-12 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Micah Lasher (D): 97.8¢ on Kalshi, 97.2¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Caroline Shinkle (R): 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.1¢ on Polymarket, 3.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?WONPre-event: 50%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONMicah Lasher (D)
Pre-event: 50%